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Oskeim Sports’ Free MLB Sports Pick for Tuesday, August 23

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Chicago southpaw Carlos Rodon takes the mound with a middling 4.26 ERA, 4.20 FIP, 4.07 xFIP and 4.07 SIERA this season, but he has been hampered by an unsustainable .344 BABIP. I expect that number to regress closer to his career-average of .315, which will translate into better numbers across the board.

The 23-year-old has posted a 3.33 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and a 3.31 FIP in the second half with a 22.8% strikeout rate (8.51 K/9), a 6.9% walk rate (2.59 BB/9) and a significantly improved home run rate (0.74 HR/9 vs. 1.49 HR/9 in first half).

Rodon has also garnered a 2.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and a 2.37 FIP in 18.0 August innings where he has not given up a home run. Meanwhile, Philadelphia right-hander Jake Thompson was 11-5 with a 2.50 and a 3.79 FIP in Triple-A this season before being recalled (129.2 IP).

The 22-year-old also had a 16.8% K% (6.04 K/9), a 7.2% BB% (2.57 BB/9) and a pedestrian 9.7% K-BB% during his time at Triple-A. In three starts for the Phillies, a span covering 14.1 innings, Thompson owns an 8.79 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 6.43 FIP and a 5.35 xFIP with a 1.88 HR/9 rate.

Chicago also enters this series with a vastly superior bullpen that owns a 2.82 ERA and 1.33 WHIP at home and a 2.87 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in interleague play. In contrast, the Phillies’ bullpen owns a 4.55 ERA on the road, a 4.49 ERA at night and a 7.86 ERA over its last seven games. Philadelphia is also averaging just 3.6 runs per game versus left-handed starters this season (.246 AVG.; .297 OBP; .661 OPS).

From a technical standpoint, Philadelphia is a money-burning 15-36 in its last 51 interleague road games (8-22 L/30 vs. teams with a losing record), including 3-11 in its last fourteen versus left-handed starters (0-4 L/4). With Chicago standing at 7-3 in its last ten home games, take the White Sox as Oskeim Sports’ free pick and invest with confidence.

Oskeim Sports’ Free MLB Sports Pick: Chicago White Sox

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