Oskeim Sports Free Interleague Best Bet: Miami at Boston

Jul 7, 2015


I have Miami right-hander Dan Haren circled as a prime regression candidate based upon his unsustainable .247 BABIP this season, including a ridiculous .228 BABIP on the road and a .224 BABIP in the month of June.

Haren toes the rubber with a 3.45 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 2015, but his underlying metrics are not as encouraging: 4.29 FIP, 4.32 xFIP and 4.15 SIERA. The veteran hurler also owns a 4.70 FIP on the road, together with a 1.81 HR/9 rate. The other issue facing Haren is his woeful groundball rate, which is 31.9%. Let’s also note that Haren has given up fifteen home runs in 16 starts this season (10.5 HR/FB).

Meanwhile, Boston southpaw Wade Miley takes the mound in good form with a 3.12 ERA over his last three outings. Miley also boasts a solid 3.06 FIP at home despite an unlucky 64.7% LOB%. The most encouraging sign for Miley has been his strikeout rate, which hit a season high in June (8.10 K/9).

That bodes well against a Miami offense that strikes out at an above average rate (22.1 K% on the road & 22.0 K% vs. southpaws).  The Marlins also own a pedestrian 6.8 Hard-Soft% versus left-handed pitchers, while Miley has excelled at limiting contact (5.9 Hard-Soft%).

The lefty now faces a scuffling Miami lineup that is averaging 3.5 runs per game at night, 3.6 runs per game on the road and 2.9 runs over the last seven games. Let’s further note that Miley will not have to face slugger Giancarlo Stanton, who remains on the disabled list with a broken left hand.

Boston enters this interleague matchup with a surging offense that collectively hit .441 with an American League-best ten triples during June. The Red Sox are averaging 5.7 runs over their last seven games and should have continued success against the regression-prone Haren.

From a technical standpoint, Miami is a money-burning 8-20 as an underdog, 16-36 as a road underdog, 2-9 in its last eleven road games, 1-9 in its last ten interleague games as an underdog and 1-4 in Haren’s last five starts.

In contrast, Boston is a profitable 64-24 in interleague home games versus right-handed starters, 47-18 in interleague home games versus teams with a losing record, 83-36 in interleague home games, 63-28 versus National League East opposition and 7-3 in Miley’s last ten starts (4-0 L/4 as a home favorite). Take the Red Sox as Oskeim Sports free Best Bet and invest with confidence.

Oskeim Sports Free Interleague Best Bet: Boston Red Sox