Since the beginning of 2013, Seattle right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma is 18-8 with a 2.66 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. And, after missing the first month of the 2014 campaign with a torn finger tendon, Iwakuma has not missed a beat as evidenced by the fact that he is 4-2 with a 2.66 ERA and 0.92 WHIP, including posting a 2.79 ERA and 0.93 WHIP at home and a 2.10 ERA and 0.83 WHIP at night. In 56 career starts with Seattle, Iwakuma is 27-13 with a 2.82 ERA and finished third in last year’s American League Cy Young Award voting. In three career starts against the Yankees, Iwakuma is 1-1 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. Iwakuma’s strong peripheral numbers are also supported by the most meaningful metrics as he owns a 2.89 xFIP and a 2.94 SIERA.
I also like the fact that Iwakuma is supported by a very good Seattle bullpen that owns a 2.75 ERA and 1.24 WHIP this season, including a 2.72 ERA and 1.35 WHIP at night and a 0.44 ERA and 0.67 WHIP over the last seven games. Iwakuma should have little trouble taming a subpar New York offense that is ranked 13th in the league in runs scored. Overall, New York is batting .247 with a .311 on base percentage on the road (4.3 runs per game), .251 with a .312 on base percentage versus right-handed starters (3.7 runs per game) and .233 with a .276 on base percentage over the last ten days (2.7 runs per game).
Meanwhile, New York southpaw Vidal Nuno is 1-2 with a 5.33 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 2014, including going 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in nine starts. The 26-year-old soft-tosser is 1-2 with a 5.61 ERA and 1.36 WHIP at night and 0-1 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.30 WHIP over his last three outings. One of the most alarming statistics surrounding Nuno is his 1.72 HR/9 rate, which is a reflection of how hittable he is. Nuno’s 8% swinging strike rate, together with a poor 40% ground-ball rate, is a deadly combination at this level of baseball. Nuno’s 4.28 xFIP and 4.16 SIERA suggest that he is nothing more than an end-of-the-rotation starter.
Nuno is averaging only 5 1/3-innings per start, which is signifiant in that the Yankees’ bullpen owns a 5.35 ERA and 1.58 WHIP at night and a 6.16 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over the last seven games. From a technical standpoint, Seattle is a profitable 17-9 (+10.2 units) versus left-handed starters, 13-4 (+12.2 units) after winning three of its last four games and 7-1 (+8.5 units) in June, whereas the Yankees are a money-burning 16-24 (-12.0 units) at night. The following trends further support our investment on the Mariners tonight:
- New York is 8-20 in its L/28 games as underdogs of +150 or less;
- New York is 4-10 in its L/14 Game 1 situations;
- New York is 1-4 in Nuno’s L/5 starts;
- Seattle is 8-1 in its L/9 games overall;
- Seattle is 11-4 in its L/15 games as a favorite of -150 or less;
- Seattle is 8-3 in its L/11 Game 1 situations;
- Seattle is 10-4 in Iwakuma’s L/14 starts in Game 1 of a series
Take Seattle and invest with confidence.