Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report – 7/8

Jul 8, 2023

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Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report!  Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Saturday’s games.  Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!

Toronto Blue Jays (-225) at Detroit Tigers

Report: Since 2008, MLB favorites of -210 or greater are 1911-669 SU (74.1%; +4.1% ROI) and 1496-1078 RL (58.1%; +4.6% ROI) in games with a total of eight runs or more, winning by an average margin of +2.27 runs per game. Since 2006, large MLB road favorites are 648-262 SU (71.2%; +3.2% ROI) and 515-348 RL (59.7%; +3.5% ROI), winning by an average margin of +2.35 runs per game. These teams improve to 453-159 SU (74%; +5.4% ROI) and 367-211 RL (63.5%; +8.1% ROI) in games played before the All-Star break, producing an average margin of victory of +2.65 runs per game since 2006.

Since 2005, MLB home underdogs coming off a game in which they allowed ten or more runs are 493-732 SU (40.2%; -7.7% ROI) and 559-520 RL (-6% ROI), losing by an average of -1.04 runs per game. Finally, since 2010, non-divisional home underdogs in afternoon games with a total of 8.5 runs or more are 378-568 SU (40%; -8.1% ROI) and 483-460 RL (-8.9% ROI), including 157-246 SU (39%; -7.8% ROI) and 203-200 RL (-7.6% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.41 runs per game.

Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants (-205)

Report: Since 2008, MLB favorites of -210 or greater are 1911-669 SU (74.1%; +4.1% ROI) and 1496-1078 RL (58.1%; +4.6% ROI) in games with a total of eight runs or more, winning by an average margin of +2.27 runs per game. Since 2009, divisional home favorites of -165 or greater coming off a loss are 913-433 SU (67.8%; +1.9% ROI) and 678-667 RL (+3.1% ROI), including 221-86 SU (72%; +6.3% ROI) and 171-136 RL (55.7%; +9.5% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average of +2.02 runs per game.

Finally, since 2004, MLB road underdogs of +156 or greater coming off a road game in which they scored less than nine runs are 448-975 SU (31.5%; -9.7% ROI) and 567-612 RL (-8.2% ROI) with starting pitchers with an ERA of 3.81 or worse that are coming off back-to-back losses in their previous two outings, losing by an average of -1.68 runs per game. These teams are an even worse 83-244 SU (25.4%; -25% ROI) and 149-179 RL (45.4%; -10% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.97 runs per game.

Chicago Cubs at New York Yankees (-183)

Report: Since 2004, MLB road underdogs of +156 or greater coming off a road game in which they scored less than nine runs are 448-975 SU (31.5%; -9.7% ROI) and 567-612 RL (-8.2% ROI) with starting pitchers with an ERA of 3.81 or worse that are coming off back-to-back losses in their previous two outings, losing by an average of -1.68 runs per game. These teams are an even worse 83-244 SU (25.4%; -25% ROI) and 149-179 RL (45.4%; -10% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.97 runs per game. Since 2008, MLB home favorites of -180 or greater coming off a shutout loss are 188-82 SU (69.6%; +2.8% ROI) and 136-130 RL (+1.5% ROI), winning by an average of +1.48 runs per game.

The Yankees are 84-53 SU (61.3%; +8.5% ROI) and 73-46 RL (61.3%; +19.3% ROI) following a shutout loss since 2004. The Yankees are 23-9 SU (71.9%; +15.1% ROI) and 14-14 RL (+10.8% ROI) since 2004 in interleague home games coming off a loss, winning by an average of +1.38 runs per game.

Bonus MLB Betting Trends for Saturday, July 8

  • Since 2005, large MLB favorites with starting pitchers with a WHIP of 0.85 or better are 269-91 SU (74.7%; +6% ROI) and 192-138 RL (58.2%; +6.5% ROI) with revenge, winning by an average of +2.06 runs per game
  • Since 2004, MLB MLB road favorites of -130 or greater coming off a game in which they used less than five pitchers are 1112-676 SU (62.2%; +2.1% ROI) if the game went under the total, winning by an average of +1.48 runs per game
  • The Los Angeles Dodgers are 191-101 SU (65.4%; +12.6% ROI) and 141-128 RL (+4.2% ROI) since 2005 when going for a series sweep, winning by an average of +1.14 runs per game.

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