Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Monday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Atlanta Braves (-155) at Cleveland Guardians
Report: Since 2003, MLB road favorites of -120 or greater in game 1 of a series are 40-7 SU (85.1%; +32.6% ROI) and 33-11 RL (75%; +43.2% ROI) versus unrested teams coming off an extra-innings affair, winning by an average of +3.26 runs per game. Since 2007, MLB non-divisional; road favorites of -130 to -180 coming off back-to-back wins are 165-92 SU (64.2%; +8.2% ROI) and 122-134 RL (+1% ROI) in game 1 of a series with a total of 9.5 runs or less, including 46-13 SU (78%; +30.5% ROI) and 38-21 RL (64.4%; +34.7% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average of +2.58 runs per game.
Since 2008, unrested MLB underdogs of +110 or greater in game 1 of a series are 165-347 SU (32.2%; -22.1% ROI) and 250-257 RL (-14.4% ROI) following an extra-innings game, losing by an average of -1.49 runs per game. Since 2015, MLB favorites of -130 or greater coming off a win in which they scored 3-6 runs are 745-440 SU (62.9%; +1% ROI) in the opening game of a series, including 308-173 SU (64%; +1.9% ROI) since 2020.
Finally, the Braves are 50-13 SU (79.4%; +23.7% ROI) and 38-25 RL (60.3%; +28.1% ROI) since 2014 as favorites of greater than -130 following a game in which their starter pitched six or more innings and their opponent left fewer than ten runners on base, winning by an average of +2.57 runs per game.
Baltimore Orioles (-110) at New York Yankees
Report: Since 2007, MLB home underdogs coming off a loss are 1980-2805 SU (41.4%; -6.1% ROI) and 2543-2222 RL (-4.9% ROI) in games that start after 4 p.m. eastern time, losing by an average of -1.02 runs per game. Since 2009, MLB home underdogs coming off a game that went under the total in which both teams failed to score in the first inning are 1208-1733 SU (41.1%; -6.8% ROI) and 1549-1384 RL (-6.6% ROI), losing by an average margin of -1.11 runs per game.
Since 2017, MLB road favorites coming off a game that went under the total in which they had three or more walks are 890-631 SU (58.5%; +1.2% ROI), winning by an average of +1.2 runs per game.
Cincinnati Reds (-125) at Washington Nationals
Report: Since 2012, MLB teams coming off a game as underdogs in which they led by one run after the seventh inning are 643-845 SU (43.2%; -6.7% ROI) and 751-734 RL (-5.4% ROI) if no runs were scored in the final two innings, losing by an average of -0.71 runs per game. Since 2017, MLB road favorites coming off a game that went under the total in which they had three or more walks are 890-631 SU (58.5%; +1.2% ROI), winning by an average of +1.2 runs per game.
Finally, since 2004, MLB home underdogs in the first game of a series with a start time between 6-7 p.m. eastern time are 72-100 SU (41.9%; -1% ROI) and 86-83 RL (-8.7% ROI), losing by an average of -0.95 runs per game.
Bonus MLB Betting Trends for Monday, July 3
- Since 2006, .499 or worse divisional road underdogs are 948-1368 SU (40.9%; -4.8% ROI) and 1274-888 RL (-3.6% ROI) versus teams with a losing record, including 190-309 SU (38.1%; -10.9% ROI) and 283-216 RL (-5.5% ROI) since 2019
- The Kansas City Royals are 73-129 SU (36.1%; -3.3% ROI) and 79-74 RL (-7.4% ROI) since 2003 as road underdogs of +130 or greater coming off a game in which they have twelve or more hits, including 11-32 SU (25.6%; -27.8% ROI) and 18-25 RL (-20.2% ROI) since 2018, losing by an average of -2.28 runs per game
- The Kansas City Royals are 3-23 SU (11.5%; -67.5% ROI) and 6-20 RL (23.1%; -57% ROI) since August 12, 2022, as underdogs of +130 or greater following a win, losing by an average of -2.42 runs per game
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