Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Friday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat (+3.5) (-110)
Report: Since 2004, NBA playoff underdogs coming off back-to-back games as underdogs are just 143-400 SU and 223-309 ATS (41.9%), losing by an average margin of -7.12 points per game. Since 2006, NBA road favorites are 205-117 SU and 177-137-8 ATS in the playoffs, including 110-51 SU and 98-60-3 ATS (62%) since 2016. Since 2002, NBA teams that lost and failed to cover the previous matchup as home underdogs are 17-8 SU and 18-7 ATS (72%) if the line is less than or equal to the prior game, covering the spread by an average of +5.34 points per game.
Finally, since 2002, NBA playoff home teams that played at home in their previous game and did not cover the spread are 165-133-5 ATS (55.4%) versus the same opponent, including 38-22 ATS (63.3%) since 2019, covering by an average of +4.53 points per game.
Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays (-167)
Report: Since 2015, MLB favorites of -130 or greater in the first game of a series are 732-431 SU (62.9%; +1% ROI) and 549-611 RL (+1% ROI) following a win in which they scored 3 to 6 runs, including 295-164 SU (64.3%; +2.4% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average margin of +1.37 runs per game. Since 2006, MLB home favorites coming off a non-divisional game in which had less than nine hits are 379-237 SU (61.5%; +5% ROI) versus teams off a game as home favorites, including 70-26 SU (72.9%; +21.8% ROI) and 52-44 RL (+25.8% ROI) since 2020.
Tampa Bay is 296-174 SU (63%; +12% ROI) and 265-205 RL (56.4%; +11.6% ROI) following a win since 2018, winning by an average margin of +1.13 runs per game. Tampa Bay is 159-61 SU (72.3%; +9.9% ROI) and 109-111 RL (+1% ROI) since 2015 as home favorites of -151 or greater, winning by an average margin of +1.72 runs per game. The Rays are 268-158 SU (62.9%; +10.6% ROI) and 218-208 RL (+5.9% ROI) since 2017 in home affairs with a total of less than nine runs, including 142-71 SU (66.7%; +13.2% ROI) and 107-106 RL (+5.1% ROI) since 2020.
Finally, Texas falls into very negative 2621-4656 (36%; -4.3% ROI) and 2287-4087 (35.9%; -4.5% ROI) systems of mine that have cost bettors over -$43,500 against the run line since 2002.
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves (-200)
Report: Atlanta falls into a very good 2237-874 SU (71.9%; +2.1% ROI) and 1420-1174 RL (54.7%; +2.4% ROI) system that invests on certain large home favorites from game 40 out. This situation is 666-214 SU (75.7%; +5.6% ROI) and 502-378 RL (57%; +2.8% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +2.22 runs per game. Since 2005, large MLB favorites are 1213-491 SU (71.2%; +2.2% ROI) and 858-669 RL (56.2%; +4.8% ROI) in the first game of a series, winning by an average of +2.02 runs per game. These teams are 436-171 SU (71.8%; +3.1% ROI) and 332-269 RL (55.2%; +3.7% ROI) before the All-Star game, winning by an average margin of +2.11 runs per game.
Since 2005, MLB home favorites of -156 to -210 with revenge are 783-394 SU (66.5%; +3.8% ROI) and 510-529 RL (+6.7% ROI) in the first game of a series, winning by an average of +1.5 runs per game. Finally, Washington falls into very negative 2621-4656 (36%; -4.3% ROI) and 2287-4087 (35.9%; -4.5% ROI) systems of mine that have cost bettors over -$43,500 against the run line since 2002.
San Diego Padres (-190) at Colorado Rockies
Report: Since 2007, MLB divisional home underdogs of +150 or greater are 354-741 SU (32.3%; -11.8% ROI) and 493-598 RL (-8.2% ROI), losing by an average margin of -1.93 runs per game. Since 2013, divisional road favorites of -160 or greater are 452-194 SU (70%; +6.7% ROI) and 359-286 RL (55.7%; +2.8% ROI) versus teams with revenge, winning by an average margin of +1.98 runs per game. Since 2005, MLB home underdogs coming off a game in which they allowed ten or more runs are 491-721 SU (40.5%; -7.1% ROI) and 554-512 RL (-5.8% ROI), losing by an average of -1.01 runs per game.
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