Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Thursday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Vegas Golden Knights at Florida Panthers (-120)
Report: Since 2000, NHL underdogs coming off three or more consecutive wins are 787-1268 (38.3%; -11.4% ROI), including 100-194 (34%) since 2020, losing by an average of -0.95 goals per game and costing bettors a -19.1% return on investment. This situation is 77-107 (41.8%; -2.3% ROI) in the playoffs over that span.
Vegas goaltender Adin Hill has completely stonewalled the Panthers, posting a .937 SV% with +7.8 goals saved above expected (GSAx) in this series. Florida has played to a 52.11 xGF% at five-on-five but returns home trailing 0-2. Florida goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky is playing to a .785 SV% and was pulled in Game 2.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) at Cincinnati Reds
Report: Since 2008, MLB favorites of -210 or greater are 1877-652 SU (74.2%; +4.4% ROI) and 1467-1056 RL (58.1%; +4.7% ROI) in games with a total of eight runs or more, winning by an average margin of +2.27 runs per game. Since 2006, large MLB road favorites are 635-254 SU (71.4%; +3.5% ROI) and 507-335 RL (60.2%; +4.5% ROI), winning by an average margin of +2.36 runs per game. If these road favorites have a .551 or greater winning percentage, they improve to 443-155 SU (74.1%; +5.5% ROI) and 361-203 RL (64%; +9% ROI) since 2006, winning by an average of +2.67 runs per game. The Dodgers are 79-48 SU (62.2%; +9.2% ROI) and 66-61 RL (+4.1% ROI) since 2009 when trying to avoid a series sweep, including 13-4 SU and 10-7 RL in the last seventeen circumstances.
Los Angeles starter Clayton Kershaw is 45-19 SU (70.3%; +20.2% ROI) and 38-25 RL (60.3%; +17.7% ROI) in the last game of a series, including 24-1 SU (96%; +43% ROI) and 18-7 RL (72%; +30.9% ROI) as a road favorite of -160 or greater, winning by an average of +3.12 runs per game. Finally, Kershaw is 34-2 SU (94.4%; +33.7% ROI) and 25-11 RL (69.4%; +25.7% ROI) since May 1, 2016, as a favorite of -145 or greater off an outing in which he had nine or more strikeouts.
Minnesota Twins at Tampa Bay Rays (-170)
Report: Since 2005, MLB home favorites of -130 or greater in afternoon games with a total of less than eight runs are 936-514 SU (64.6%; +3% ROI) and 610-779 RL (+1% ROI) versus league opponents, winning by an average margin of +1.04 runs per game. Since 2016, American League home teams coming off a game in which they scored two runs or less are 313-189 SU (62.4%; +5.7% ROI) and 242-259 RL (+1.5% ROI) versus teams that scored two runs or less in their previous contest, including 130-70 SU (65%; +10.8% ROI) and 100-100 RL (+3.5% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average of +1.12 runs per game in that span.
Tampa Bay is 295-174 SU (62.9%; +11.9% ROI) and 264-205 RL (56.3%; +11.3% ROI) following a win since 2018, winning by an average margin of +1.13 runs per game. Tampa Bay is 159-61 SU (72.3%; +9.9% ROI) and 109-111 RL (+1% ROI) since 2015 as home favorites of -151 or greater, winning by an average margin of +1.72 runs per game. Finally, the Rays are 267-158 SU (62.8%; +10.5% ROI) and 217-208 RL (+5.6% ROI) since 2017 in home affairs with a total of less than nine runs, including 141-71 SU (66.5%; +13% ROI) and 106-106 RL (+4.4% ROI) since 2020.
San Francisco Giants (-175) at Colorado Rockies
Report: Since 2006, large MLB road favorites are 635-254 SU (71.4%; +3.5% ROI) and 507-335 RL (60.2%; +4.5% ROI), winning by an average margin of +2.36 runs per game. Since 2008, MLB favorites of -210 or greater are 1877-652 SU (74.2%; +4.4% ROI) and 1467-1056 RL (58.1%; +4.7% ROI) in games with a total of eight runs or more, winning by an average margin of +2.27 runs per game. Since 2007, MLB divisional home underdogs of +150 or greater are 354-739 SU (32.4%; -11.6% ROI) and 492-597 RL (-8.2% ROI), losing by an average margin of -1.93 runs per game.
Finally, since 2016, divisional road favorites coming off a road game are 673-452 SU (59.8%; +2.8% ROI), including 384-252 SU (60.4%; +2.2% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +1.04 runs per game.
Bonus MLB Betting Trends for Thursday, June 8
- Since 2004, MLB underdogs in the last game of a series are 83-184 SU (31.1%; -12.1% ROI) and 98-114 RL (-12.8% ROI) following a game as road underdogs versus starting pitchers with an ERA of 4.01 or worse, losing by an average of -1.65 runs per game
- Houston starter Framber Valdez is 16-0 SU and 15-1 RL (93.8%; +80.3% ROI) as a favorite of -125 or greater following an outing in which he pitched seven or more innings and allowed one run or less, winning by an average margin of +4.56 runs per game
- New York starter Luis Severino is 36-9 SU (80%; +17.9% ROI) and 28-17 RL (62.2%; +18.4% ROI) since August 15, 2016, at home during the regular season, winning by an average of +2.73 runs per game.
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