Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Wednesday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
San Francisco Giants (-200) at Colorado Rockies
Report: Since 2008, MLB favorites of -210 or greater are 1877-652 SU (74.2%; +4.4% ROI) and 1467-1056 RL (58.1%; +4.7% ROI) in games with a total of eight runs or more, winning by an average margin of +2.27 runs per game. Since 2006, large MLB road favorites are 635-254 SU (71.4%; +3.5% ROI) and 507-335 RL (60.2%; +4.5% ROI), winning by an average margin of +2.36 runs per game. Since 2013, MLB divisional road favorites of -160 or greater are 450-194 SU (69.9%; +6.5% ROI) and 358-285 RL (55.7%; +2.8% ROI) versus teams with revenge, winning by an average margin of +1.98 runs per game.
Finally, since 2016, divisional road favorites coming off a road game are 673-452 SU (59.8%; +2.8% ROI), including 384-252 SU (60.4%; +2.2% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +1.04 runs per game.
Kansas City Royals at Miami Marlins (-180)
Report: Since 2008, MLB road teams coming off back-to-back losses by two or more runs are 678-922 SU (42.4%; -5% ROI) and 863-734 RL (-2.3% ROI) in the final game of a series. Since 2004, MLB road underdogs of +135 or greater in the last game of a series are 360-708 SU (33.7%; -9.7% ROI) and 453-429 RL (-7.2% ROI) with a starting pitcher coming off back-to-back losses in his past two outings, including 52-134 SU (28%; -25.2% ROI) and 85-101 RL (-15.5% ROI) since 2019. These teams have lost by an average margin of -1.67 runs per game in that span.
Finally, the Royals are just 82-120 SU (40.6%; -8.7% ROI) and 109-94 RL (-1.9% ROI) when trying to avoid a sweep since 2010, losing by an average margin of -0.83 runs per game.
Denver Nuggets (-2.5) (-110) at Miami Heat
Report: Denver has posted an Offensive Rating of 117.8 and an eFG% of 57.5% in the first two games of this series, per NBA Advanced Stats. Nikola Jokic is averaging 34 points per game on an elite 63.8% eFG% through the first two contests but the Nuggets have struggled to get out in transition. Denver posted a pace of 96.33 in the previous rounds of this postseason but owns a pace of 89.75 against the Heat. Since 2017, No. 1 seeds in the NBA Finals are just 8-8 SU and 5-9-2 ATS.
The Heat shot 49% from beyond the arc in Game 2, which is even more amazing when taking into account that 45% of their shots were from three-point territory. Miami also assisted on 74% of its made baskets on Monday. The team that won Game 2 in the last ten NBA Finals has gone 3-7 SU and ATS in Game 3. All seven of the losses were by double-digit margins as well. Teams seeded No. 3 or worse are 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS in Game 3 or beyond in the last three NBA Finals.
Bonus MLB Betting Trends for Wednesday, June 7
- Since 2004, MLB home favorites of -160 or greater with starting pitchers coming off a loss in which they allowed eight or more runs are 476-240 SU (66.5%; +1.9% ROI) and 360-354 RL (+4.2% ROI), winning by an average of +1.74 runs per game
- Since 2007, MLB divisional underdogs of +150 or greater are 354-739 SU (32.4%; -11.6% ROI) and 492-597 RL (-8.2% ROI), losing by an average margin of -1.93 runs per game
- The Tampa Bay Rays are 266-158 SU (62.7%; +10.3% ROI) and 217-207 RL (+5.8% ROI) since 2017 at home in games with a total of fewer than nine runs, winning by an average of +1.02 runs per game.
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