Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Monday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Tampa Bay Rays (-165) at Boston Red Sox
Report: Since 2016, divisional road favorites coming off a road game are 672-452 SU (59.8%; +2.7% ROI), including 383-252 SU (60.3%; +2.1% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +1.04 runs per game. Since 2002, MLB road favorites of -130 or greater coming off a game in which they used less than five pitchers are 1098-665 SU (62.3%; +2.3% ROI) and 864-897 RL (+1% ROI), winning by an average margin of +1.46 runs per game in that span. Since 2013, MLB divisional road favorites of -160 or greater are 449-194 SU (69.8%; +6.5% ROI) and 357-285 RL (55.6%; +2.7% ROI) versus teams with revenge, winning by an average of +1.97 runs per game.
Since 2018, Tampa Bay is 292-174 SU (62.7%; +11.5% ROI) and 262-204 RL (56.2%; +11.1% ROI) following a win with a +1.11 average margin of victory. Finally, the Rays are 138-88 SU (61.1%; +12.9% ROI) and 125-101 RL (55.3%; +6.4% ROI) since 2020 versus divisional opponents.
Oakland Athletics at Pittsburgh Pirates (-188)
Report: Since 2005, large MLB favorites are 1212-491 SU (71.2%; +2.2% ROI) and 857-669 RL (56.2%; +4.7% ROI) in the first game of a series, winning by an average of +2.01 runs per game. These teams are 435-171 SU (71.8%; +3% ROI) and 331-269 RL (55.2%; +3.5% ROI) before the All-Star game, winning by an average margin of +2.11 runs per game. Pittsburgh falls into a very good 2235-873 SU (71.9%; +2.1% ROI) and 1419-1172 RL (54.8%; +2.4% ROI) system that invests on certain large home favorites from game 40 out. This situation is 664-213 SU (75.7%; +5.7% ROI) and 501-376 RL (57.1%; +2.9% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +2.23 runs per game.
Finally, the Athletics are just 58-137 SU (29.7%; -13.4% ROI) and 88-107 RL (-10.6% ROI) as large underdogs since 2014, losing by an average of -2.1 runs per game. This situation is 2-23 SU (8.0%) since April 25, 2023.
Florida Panthers at Vegas Golden Knights (-134)
Report: Since 2020, NHL teams coming off a loss by three or more goals are 230-302 (43.2%; -3.2% ROI) versus teams that scored three or more goals in two or more consecutive games, losing by an average margin of -0.48 goals per game. Since 2004, NHL home favorites of -125 or greater coming off a home game are 19-7 (73.1%; +12.5% ROI) in June affairs, including 10-1 (91%) since June 2, 2021, and 15-3 (83.3%) since June of 2013. This situation is 14-9-2 (56%) to the Under since June 4, 2013, including 8-5 (61.5%) to the Under since 2015.
Florida goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky allowed four goals in Game 1 on Saturday, the most he’s given up since Game 6 of Round 1 against the Bruins (five). With 11 goals in their last two games, Vegas is averaging an impressive 3.72 goals per game in the playoffs, compared to 3.06 for the Panthers. Vegas goaltender Adin Hill was outstanding in Game 1, saving 1.35 Goals Above Expected at 5-on-5.
Bonus MLB Betting Trends for Monday, June 5
- The Philadelphia Phillies are 30-6 SU (83.3%; +33.4% ROI) and 25-11 RL (69.4%; +35.4% ROI) since August 27, 2021, at home following a game in which they scored seven or more runs, winning by an average of +2.36 runs per game in that span
- Since 2009, MLB home underdogs coming off a game that went under the total in which both teams failed to score in the first inning are 1196-1711 SU (41.1%; -6.7% ROI) and 1532-1367 RL (-6.6% ROI), including 326-530 SU (38.1%; -10.7% ROI) and 428-428 RL (-9.9% ROI) since 2019
- The Kansas City Royals are 2-19 SU (9.5%; -71.9% ROI) and 5-16 RL (23.8%; -55.6% ROI) since August 12, 2022, as underdogs coming off a win, losing by an average margin of -2.48 runs per game.
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