Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Wednesday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Minnesota Twins at Atlanta Braves (-160)
Report: Since 2012, MLB home favorites in games with a total of at least nine runs are 762-477 SU (61.5%; +2.9% ROI) and 577-660 RL (+2.4% ROI) in afternoon affairs except on Sundays. The Atlanta Braves are 69-27 SU (71.9%; +11.2% ROI) and 48-47 RL (+5.1% ROI) since June 1, 2019, as home favorites of -131 or greater before game 90 of the regular season versus teams with a worse win percentage, winning by an average margin of +2.27 runs per game.
Finally, since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are 2633-4680 SU (36%; -4.3% ROI) and 3744-3150 RL (-2.4% ROI) versus .551 or greater opposition, losing by an average of -1.15 runs per game. This situation is 621-1267 SU (32.9%; -9.9% ROI) and 946-938 RL (-6.4% ROI) since 2019, losing by -1.46 runs per game in that span.
New York Yankees at Oakland Athletics OVER 8 runs (-105)
Report: Since August 22, 2018, the New York Yankees are 33-13-1 (71.7%) to the Over in game 2 of a road series versus starting pitchers with an ERA of 3.51 or worse, covering the total by an average margin of +1.7 runs per game in that span. New York starter Domingo German is 0-1 with a 5.67 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in five career outings against the Athletics, while Oakland southpaw JP Sears is 0-2 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in two career outings against the Yankees.
New York boasts the league’s best bullpen in terms of ERA (2.85 ERA) but a 3.90 xFIP suggests that regression is looming in the future. Let’s also note that Oakland is 11-2 (+8.8 units) to the Over versus teams with a bullpen ERA of 3.00 or better this season. Oakland has the worst bullpen in the majors (5.74 ERA) and the underlying metrics are equally futile (5.14 FIP, 5.34 xFIP, 5.14 BB/9, 1.19 HR/9).
Finally, Oakland is 12-4 (+7.7 units) to the Over versus American League East opponents this season.
Cincinnati Reds at Baltimore Orioles (-165)
Report: Since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are 2633-4680 SU (36%; -4.3% ROI) and 3744-3150 RL (-2.4% ROI) versus .551 or greater opposition, losing by an average of -1.15 runs per game. This situation is 621-1267 SU (32.9%; -9.9% ROI) and 946-938 RL (-6.4% ROI) since 2019, losing by -1.46 runs per game in that span. Since 2004, MLB home favorites of -160 or greater are 482-242 SU (66.6%; +1.9% ROI) and 364-358 RL (+4.1% ROI) with a starting pitcher coming off a loss in which he allowed eight or more runs, winning by an average of +1.74 runs per game.
Cincinnati right-hander Luke Weaver toes the rubber with a 6.86 ERA, 5.36 xERA and 5.51 FIP across twelve outings this season. Weaver is backed by a subpar Cincinnati bullpen that ranks 22nd in FIP (4.31) and 27th in xFIP (4.67). Baltimore is a profitable 29-7 (+18.7 units) as favorites this season, including 16-3 (+10.9 units) as favorites of -150 or greater. Finally, Baltimore starter Kyle Gibson is 18-5 (+14.5 units) at home outings before the All-Star break over the last three seasons (team record).
Bonus MLB Betting Trends for Wednesday, June 28
- Since 2015, MLB non-divisional road favorites in games with a total of eight runs or less are 779-561 SU (58.1%), winning by an average margin of +1.06 runs per game
- Chicago starter Lucas Giolito is 2-18 SU (10%; -77.6% ROI) and 8-12 RL (-34.5% ROI) since August 27, 2019, as an underdog versus American League opponents, losing by an average of -2.9 runs per game
- Washington starter Patrick Corbin is 5-27 SU (15.6%; -52.9% ROI) and 11-21 RL (-31.2% ROI) since 2016 as an underdog of +156 or greater versus teams that had 76+ regular season wins the previous season, losing by an average of -4.06 runs per game
- Washington starter Patrick Corbin is 10-35 SU (22.2%; -43.7% ROI) and 19-26 RL (-22.2% ROI) since June 6, 2019, as an underdog coming off a loss in his last outing, losing by an average of -2.76 runs per game
- The Pittsburgh Pirates are 104-169 SU (38.1%; -14.1% ROI) and 132-139 RL (-9.1% ROI) since 2017 versus left-handed starters, losing by an average of -1.25 runs per game
- Colorado starter Kyle Freeland is 16-0 SU and 14-2 RL (87.5%; +77.1% ROI) since June 11, 2018, at home following an outing in which he allowed eight or more hits, winning by an average of +2.25 runs per game
- The New York Yankees are 39-13 SU (75%; +22.6% ROI) and 33-19 RL (63.5%; +18.1% ROI) since June 6, 2018, in game 2 of a road series versus starting pitchers with an ERA of 3.51 or worse, winning by an average of +2.37 runs per game
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