Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report – 6/27

Jun 27, 2023

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Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report!  Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Tuesday’s games.  Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!

Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers (-210)

Report: Since 2008, MLB favorites of -210 or greater are 1899-662 SU (74.2%; +4.2% ROI) and 1484-1071 RL (58.1%; +4.5% ROI) in games with a total of eight runs or more, winning by an average margin of +2.27 runs per game. Since 2016, MLB home favorites of -140 or greater in game 2 of a series are 133-66 SU (66.8%; +3% ROI) coming off a game as home favorites with starting pitchers entering off a win before the All-Star break, including 54-22 SU (71.1%; +7.9% ROI) and 44-32 RL (57.9%; +20.7% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average of +2.22 runs per game.

Since 2004, non-divisional home favorites of -155 or greater coming off an upset loss as favorites of more than -195 are 121-50 SU (70.8%; +3.3% ROI) in game 2 of a series, winning by an average of +1.34 runs per game. Finally, Detroit falls into negative 2633-4680 (36%; -4.3% ROI), 2296-4104 (35.9%; -4.5% ROI), and 808-1978 (29%; -10.8% ROI) systems of mine that have cost bettors over -$56,500 against the run line since 2002.

Washington Nationals at Seattle Mariners (-230)

Report: Since 2008, MLB favorites of -210 or greater are 1899-662 SU (74.2%; +4.2% ROI) and 1484-1071 RL (58.1%; +4.5% ROI) in games with a total of eight runs or more, winning by an average margin of +2.27 runs per game. Seattle applies to a very good 2256-887 SU (71.8%; +2% ROI) and 1435-1191 RL (+2.2% ROI) system that dates to 2004 and invests on certain large favorites of -200 or greater. This situation has won by an average margin of +1.98 runs per game in that span. The Mariners are 44-15 SU (74.6%; +27.7% ROI) since May 3, 2017, with a starting pitcher coming off a road win in his previous outing in games before the All-Star break, winning by an average of +1.37 runs per game.

Finally, since 2004, MLB road underdogs of +156 or greater coming off a road game in which they scored less than nine runs are 444-970 SU (31.4%; -10% ROI) and 563-607 RL (-8.1% ROI) with starting pitchers with an ERA of 3.81 or worse that are coming off back-to-back losses in their previous two outings, including 79-239 SU (24.8%; -26.6% ROI) and 145-174 RL (45.5%; -9.8% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.99 runs per game.

San Diego Padres (-178) at Pittsburgh Pirates

Report: Since 2003, rested MLB favorites of -135 or greater coming off a game as home favorites in which they gave up six or more runs are 223-91 SU (71%; +13.1% ROI) and 138-120 RL (+14.4% ROI), winning by an average of +1.78 runs per game. Since 2007, rested non-divisional road favorites in game 1 of a series are 457-274 SU (62.5%; +8% ROI) and 368-358 RL (+9.4% ROI), including 177-78 SU (69.4%; +16.3% ROI) and 152-103 RL (59.6%; +23.9% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +2.04 runs per game. Since 2010, MLB teams coming off a game as underdogs in which they trailed by one run after the 7th inning are 885-1141 SU (43.7%; -4.8% ROI) if no runs were scored in the final two innings.

Since 2007, MLB home underdogs coming off a loss are 1974-2797 SU (41.4%; -6.2% ROI) and 2535-2216 RL (-5% ROI) in games that start after 4 p.m. eastern time, including 495-794 SU (38.4%; -9.3% ROI) and 641-647 RL (-9.3% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.28 runs per game. Finally, San Diego starter Yu Darvish is 30-19 SU (61.2%; +5.1% ROI) since 2020 in outings before the All-Star break.

Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) (-190) at Colorado Rockies

Report: Since 2008, MLB favorites of -210 or greater are 1899-662 SU (74.2%; +4.2% ROI) and 1484-1071 RL (58.1%; +4.5% ROI) in games with a total of eight runs or more, winning by an average margin of +2.27 runs per game. Since 2005, large MLB favorites in the first game of a series are 1222-499 SU (71%; +1.9% ROI) and 865-679 RL (56%; +4.4% ROI), winning by an average of +2.01 runs per game. This situation improves to 445-179 SU (71.3%; +2.1% ROI) and 339-279 RL (+2.7% ROI) in games before the All-Star break, winning by an average of +2.09 runs per game.

Since 2007, divisional home underdogs of +150 or greater are 355-742 SU (32.4%; -11.7% ROI) and 494-599 RL (-8.2% ROI), losing by an average of -1.92 runs per game. Since 2006, MLB road favorites of -200 or greater are 645-258 SU (71.4%; +3.5% ROI) and 512-344 RL (59.8%; +3.8% ROI), including 451-158 SU (74.1%; +5.4% ROI) and 365-210 RL (63.5%; +8.1% ROI) if they have a winning record (+2.65 runs per game margin). Since 2013, divisional road favorites of -160 or greater are 455-196 SU (69.9%; +6.6% ROI) and 362-288 RL (55.7%; +2.8% ROI) versus teams with revenge, winning by an average of +1.97 runs per game.

Finally, the Dodgers are 74-24 SU (75.5%; +7% ROI) and 62-36 RL (63.3%; +18.1% ROI) since September 24, 2020, following a home game versus starting pitchers with an ERA of 4.01 or worse, winning by an average of +2.36 runs per game.

Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels (-195)

Report: Since 2004, MLB road underdogs of +156 or greater coming off a road game in which they scored less than nine runs are 444-970 SU (31.4%; -10% ROI) and 563-607 RL (-8.1% ROI) with starting pitchers with an ERA of 3.81 or worse that are coming off back-to-back losses in their previous two outings, including 79-239 SU (24.8%; -26.6% ROI) and 145-174 RL (45.5%; -9.8% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.99 runs per game. Los Angeles applies to a very good 2256-887 SU (71.8%; +2% ROI) and 1435-1191 RL (+2.2% ROI) system that dates to 2004 and invests on certain large favorites of -200 or greater. This situation has won by an average margin of +1.98 runs per game in that span.

Finally, Los Angeles starter Shonei Ohtani is 15-1-2 (93.8%) to the Under since June 1, 2022, as a favorite of more than -140 and less than -300, covering the total by an average margin of 2.19 runs per game.

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