Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Monday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Washington Nationals at Seattle Mariners (-260)
Report: Since 2008, MLB favorites of -210 or greater are 1897-662 SU (74.1%; +4.2% ROI) and 1482-1071 RL (58%; +4.5% ROI) in games with a total of eight runs or more, winning by an average margin of +2.27 runs per game. Since 2005, large MLB favorites in the first game of a series are 1220-498 SU (71%; +1.9% ROI) and 863-678 RL (56%; +4.3% ROI), winning by an average of +2.01 runs per game. This situation improves to 443-178 SU (71.3%; +2.1% ROI) and 337-278 RL (+2.6% ROI) in games before the All-Star break, winning by an average of +2.09 runs per game.
Seattle applies to a very good 2254-887 SU (71.8%; +2% ROI) and 1433-1191 RL (+2.1% ROI) system that dates to 2004 and invests on certain large favorites of -200 or greater. This situation has won by an average margin of +1.98 runs per game in that span. Finally, Washington is 80-126 SU (38.8%; -16.4% ROI) and 87-118 RL (42.4%; -17.7% ROI) in the first game of a series since 2019, including 20-57 SU (26%; -31.4% ROI) and 29-48 RL (37.7%; -28.4% ROI) since 2022, losing by an average of -2.1 runs per game.
Cincinnati Reds at Baltimore Orioles (-130)
Report: Since 2015, MLB favorites of -130 or greater in the first game of a series are 741-438 SU (62.8%; +1% ROI) coming off a win in which they scored 3 to 6 runs, including 304-171 SU (64%; +1.8% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average margin of +1.35 runs per game. The Orioles are 72-45 SU (61.5%; +17.5% ROI) and 72-45 RL (61.5%; +14.4% ROI) since June 12, 2022, as underdogs of less than +145 (or as favorites) following a game in which they had five or more hits.
However, the Orioles are just 122-183 SU (40%; -4.1% ROI) since September 25, 2020, coming off a game as underdogs, losing by an average of -1.12 runs per game. Finally, since 2012, MLB teams entering off a game as underdogs in which they led by one run after the seventh inning are 640-839 SU (43.3%; -6.6% ROI) and 748-728 RL (-5.2% ROI) if no runs were scored in the final two innings.
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets (-180)
Report: Since 2008, unrested underdogs of +110 or greater in game 1 of a series are 163-344 SU (32.1%; -22.4% ROI) and 248-254 RL (-14.4% ROI) following an extra-inning affair, losing by an average margin of -1.48 runs per game. Since 2005, MLB favorites priced between -156 and -210 with revenge are 788-398 SU (66.4%; +3.7% ROI) and 513-535 RL (+6.4% ROI) in the opening game of a series, winning by an average of +1.49 runs per game. The Mets are 49-20 SU (71%; +9.4% ROI) and 35-34 RL (+9.6% ROI) since 2022 as favorites following a loss with a +1.35 runs per game margin.
Finally, the Mets are 52-21 SU (71.2%; +23.2% ROI) and 43-30 RL (58.9%; +17.4% ROI) since April 12, 2022, following a loss in which they had two or more walks, winning by an average of +1.4 runs per game.
Bonus MLB Betting Trends for Monday, June 26
- The Texas Rangers are 20-2 SU (90.9%; +48.7% ROI) and 15-7 RL (68.2%; +52.4% ROI) since May 9, 2014, as favorites of -135 or greater in the first game of a series with same-season revenge
- The Minnesota Twins are 0-20 SU and 6-14 RL (-49.6% ROI) since 2013 as unrested road underdogs of +131 or greater in the first game of a series coming off a game in which they hit at least one home run, losing by an average of -3.4 runs per game
- The Atlanta Braves are 33-13 SU (71.7%; +18% ROI) and 22-23 RL (+7.1% ROI) since 2016 as unrested home favorites in the first game of a series coming off a game in which they led by two or more runs
- Since 2008, MLB home favorites that scored six or more runs in each of their last three games are 237-134 SU (63.9%; +4% ROI) and 175-195 RL (+5.5% ROI), winning by an average margin of +1.19 runs per game.
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