Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Thursday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Oakland Athletics at Cleveland Guardians (-183)
Report: Since 2002, MLB .490 or worse road underdogs of +142 or greater are 1161-2357 SU (33%; -8.7% ROI) and 1528-1384 RL (-2.8% ROI) following two or more consecutive losses, losing by an average of -1.5 runs per game. Cleveland falls into a very good 317-157 SU (66.9%; +12.8% ROI) and 186-205 RL (+14.4% ROI) system of mine that dates to 2004 and invests on .489 or worse home favorites coming off back-to-back home wins in game 3 (or beyond) of a series versus teams with a losing record. These teams have won by an average margin of +1.23 runs per game.
The Guardians are 150-97 SU (60.7%; +8.4% ROI) and 133-102 RL (56.6%; +14.1% ROI) when going for a series sweep, including 26-14 SU (65%; +16.8% ROI) and 23-17 RL (57.5%; +15.5% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average margin of +1.38 runs per game. Finally, since 2012, MLB teams coming off a game as underdogs are 639-836 SU (43.3%; -6.6% ROI) and 747-726 RL (-5.2% ROI) following a game in which no runs were scored in the final two innings, losing by an average of -0.69 runs per game.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-145) at Washington Nationals
Report: Since 2008, MLB divisional favorites of -150 or less in game 2 (or beyond) of a series are 929-624 SU (59.8%; +4.3% ROI) and 680-872 RL (+5.9% ROI) coming off a game as favorites, including 209-115 SU (64.5%; +12.7% ROI) and 156-168 RL (+12.8% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average margin of +1.09 runs per game. Since 2011, MLB road favorites of -130 or greater coming off a game in which they used less than five pitchers are 1104-671 SU (62.2%; +2.1% ROI) if the game went under the total, winning by an average margin of +1.45 runs per game. This situation improves to 437-258 SU (62.9%; +2.9% ROI) and 355-340 RL (+3.3% ROI) since 2014 in non-divisional affairs, posting an average margin of victory of +1.73 runs per game.
Since 2015, MLB favorites of -130 or greater in the first game of a series are 740-435 SU (63%; +1% ROI) and 555-617 RL (+1% ROI) coming off a win in which they scored 3-6 runs, including 303-168 SU (64.3%; +2.4% ROI) since 2020. These teams have won by an average of +1.37 runs per game in that span.
San Diego Padres (-120) at San Francisco Giants
Report: Since 2017, MLB road favorites coming off a game in which they had three or more walks are 877-625 SU (58.4%; +1% ROI) if the game went under the total, winning by an average of +1.16 runs per game. Since 2016, divisional road favorites coming off a road game are 682-459 SU (59.8%; +2.8% ROI), winning by an average of +1.06 runs per game. Since 2010, MLB road favorites with a worse win percentage are 459-327 SU (58.4%; +5.2% ROI) and 362-422 RL (+3.6% ROI) coming off a road loss with revenge for a road defeat, including 170-94 SU (64.4%; +15.3% ROI) and 137-127 RL (+10.6% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +1.72 runs per game.
Finally, since 2008, MLB divisional favorites of -150 or less in game 2 (or beyond) of a series are 929-624 SU (59.8%; +4.3% ROI) and 680-872 RL (+5.9% ROI) coming off a game as favorites, including 209-115 SU (64.5%; +12.7% ROI) and 156-168 RL (+12.8% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average margin of +1.09 runs per game.
Bonus MLB Betting Trends for Thursday, June 22
- The Tampa Bay Rays are 161-62 SU (72.2%; +9.8% ROI) and 111-112 RL (+1% ROI) as home favorites of -151 or greater since 2015, winning by an average of +1.73 runs per game
- The Tampa Bay Rays are 299-177 SU (62.8%; +11.6% ROI) and 267-209 RL (56.1%; +10.9% ROI) following a win since 2018
- Since 2005, MLB favorites of -200 or greater are 1219-496 SU (71.1%; +2% ROI) and 862-676 RL (56%; +4.5% ROI) in the first game of a series, including 319-124 SU (72%; +2.5% ROI) and 251-192 RL (56.7%; +3.2% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average of +2.06 runs per game
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