Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Monday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
St. Louis Cardinals (-150) at Washington Nationals
Report: Since 2007, MLB non-divisional road favorites of -130 to -180 coming off back-to-back wins are 162-90 SU (64.3%; +8.4% ROI) in game 1 of a series with a total of 9.5 runs or less, winning by an average margin of +1.44 runs per game. This situation is 43-11 SU (79.6%; +33.3% ROI) and 35-19 RL (64.8%; +35.2% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average of +2.59 runs per game. Since 2007, MLB home underdogs coming off a loss are 1968-2791 SU (41.4%; -6.2% ROI) and 2529-2210 RL (-4.9% ROI) in games that start after 4 p.m. eastern time, including 489-788 SU (38.3%; -9.5% ROI) and 635-641 RL (-9.3% ROI) since 2019.
The Cardinals are 30-10 SU (75%; +22.7% ROI) and 26-14 RL (65%; +30.4% ROI) since July 27, 2021, as road favorites following a game in which their starting pitcher did not have a quality start, winning by an average of +2.0 runs per game. Finally, the Nationals are 48-80 SU (37.5%; -27.6% ROI) and 44-83 RL (34.6%; -30.5% ROI) at home in the first game of a series since 2018.
Chicago Cubs (-120) at Pittsburgh Pirates
Report: Since 2007, MLB home underdogs coming off a loss are 1968-2791 SU (41.4%; -6.2% ROI) and 2529-2210 RL (-4.9% ROI) in games that start after 4 p.m. eastern time, including 489-788 SU (38.3%; -9.5% ROI) and 635-641 RL (-9.3% ROI) since 2019. The Pirates are 103-166 SU (38.3%; -14.2% ROI) and 131-137 RL (-8.7% ROI) versus left-handed starting pitchers since 2017, losing by an average of -1.23 runs per game in that span.
Finally, since 2012, MLB teams coming off a game as underdogs are 639-835 SU (43.4%; -6.5% ROI) and 747-724 RL (-5% ROI) following a game in which no runs were scored in the final two innings, losing by an average of -0.68 runs per game.
San Diego Padres (-114) at San Francisco Giants
Report: Since 2014, MLB road favorites with a starting pitcher with revenge are 780-539 SU (59.1%; +2.1% ROI) versus teams that they defeated in the previous meeting, winning by an average of +1.09 runs per game in that span. If the game is a divisional affair, the foregoing situation improves to 392-270 SU (59.2%; +2.5% ROI), including 139-78 SU (64.1%; +8.3% ROI) and 111-106 RL (+7.7% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average of +1.39 runs per game. Finally, San Diego applies to very good 996-746 (57.2%), 700-535 (56.7%), and 572-416 (57.9%) systems of mine that date to 2014 and invest on certain divisional favorites.
Bonus MLB Betting Trends for Monday, June 19
- Since 2006, MLB favorites coming off a win in which they used seven or more pitchers are 596-345 SU (63.3%; +5.9% ROI) and 437-469 RL (+6.7% ROI), winning by an average margin of +1.18 runs per game
- Since 2011, MLB divisional home favorites coming off a win are 866-536 SU (61.8%; +1.2% ROI) in the opening game of a series, including 230-111 SU (67.4%; +7.9% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average margin of +1.52 runs per game
- The San Francisco Giants are 155-101 SU (60.5%; +10.8% ROI) and 142-114 RL (55.5%; +8.4% ROI) following a win since 2020, winning by an average of +0.88 runs per game
- The New York Mets are 50-19 SU (72.5%; +24.1% ROI) and 41-28 RL (59.4%; +20.4% ROI) since April 12, 2022, following a loss in which they had two or more walks
- The Washington Nationals are 80-123 SU (39.4%; -15.4% ROI) and 87-115 RL (43.1%; -16.5% ROI) in the first game of a series since 2019, losing by an average of -0.59 runs per game.
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