Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Sunday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Cleveland Guardians (-110) at Arizona Diamondbacks
Report: Since 2005, MLB home teams coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs are 632-436 SU (59.2%; +3.6% ROI) and 478-482 RL (+3.6% ROI), including 227-142 SU (61.5%; +7.5% ROI) and 184-184 RL (+1% ROI) since 2019. Since 2008, MLB road teams off back-to-back losses by two-plus runs are 680-927 SU (42.3%; -5.1% ROI) and 865-739 RL (-2.6% ROI) in the final game of a series.
However, MLB road favorites with a worse win percentage coming off a road loss are 458-324 SU (58.6%; +5.5% ROI) and 361-419 RL (+3.8% ROI) with revenge for road defeat, including 169-91 SU (65%; +16.4% ROI) and 136-124 RL (+11.2% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +1.73 runs per game.
Miami Marlins (-165) at Washington Nationals
Report: Since 2017, MLB road favorites coming off a game in which they had three or more walks are 873-623 SU (58.4%; +1% ROI) if the game went under the total, winning by an average of +1.16 runs per game. Since 2013, MLB divisional road favorites of -160 or greater are 454-195 SU (70%; +6.6% ROI) and 361-287 RL (+2.8% ROI) versus teams with revenge, winning by an average margin of +1.98 runs per game. Since 2016, divisional road favorites coming off a road game are 679-455 SU (59.9%; +2.8% ROI), winning by an average of +1.06 runs per game.
Finally, MLB road favorites coming off a game in which they had three or more walks and went under the total are 873-623 SU (58.4%; +1% ROI), winning by an average of +1.16 runs per game.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers (-165)
Report: Since 2003, MLB divisional home favorites of -131 or greater coming off back-to-back wins in games 45 to 120 of the regular season are 686-393 SU (63.6%; +1% ROI) and 423-463 RL (+3.8% ROI), including 187-91 SU (67.3%; +4.6% ROI) and 146-132 RL (+8.8% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average margin of +1.68 runs per game. Since 2004, MLB home favorites of -160 or greater with starting pitchers coming off a loss in which they allowed eight or more runs are 478-241 SU (66.5%; +1.9% ROI) and 361-356 RL (+4% ROI), winning by an average of +1.74 runs per game.
The Brewers are a perfect 14-0 since June 1, 2021, following a shutout win by at least 5-0 versus National League opponents. MLB divisional road teams coming off back-to-back losses are 686-898 SU (43.3%; -5% ROI) and 824-758 RL (-5.1% ROI) in the final game of a series, including 175-260 SU (40.2%; -11.9% ROI) and 200-234 RL (46.1%; -13.9% ROI) since 2019.
Bonus MLB Betting Trends for Sunday, June 18
- Since 2006, MLB road favorites of -200 or greater are 643-258 SU (71.4%; +3.4% ROI) and 512-342 RL (60%; +4% ROI), winning by an average margin of +2.35 runs per game
- Since 2004, MLB home favorites off three consecutive wins are 184-80 SU (69.7%; +10.5% ROI) and 117-115 RL (+8% ROI) in game 4 of a series versus .499 or worse opposition, including 52-17 SU (75.4%; +13.1% ROI) and 41-28 RL (59.4%; +17.5% ROI) since 2019
- Arizona starter Patrick Corbin is 10-30 SU (25%; -41.7% ROI) and 18-22 RL (-17.7% ROI) as a home underdog since 2013, losing by an average of -2.35 runs per game
- The Oakland Athletics are 63-139 SU (31.2%; -8.9% ROI) and 94-108 RL (-7.6% ROI) as underdogs of more than +160 since 2014, losing by an average of -1.97 runs per game
- The Houston Astros are 21-0 since September 15, 2021, as a -115 or greater favorite with no rest following a loss by four or more runs
- The New York Mets are 50-18 SU (73.5%; +25.6% ROI) and 41-27 RL (60.3%; +21.9% ROI) since April 12, 2022, following a loss in which they had two or more walks
- Chicago starter Lance Lynn is 0-13 since July 1, 2018, as an underdog of more than +135 if he was not a +200 or greater underdog in his previous outing.
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