Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report – 6/1

Jun 1, 2023

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Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report!  Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Thursday’s games.  Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!

Miami Heat at Denver Nuggets (-9) (-110)

Report: Since 2003, NBA teams averaging 103 or more points per game are 91-62-4 (59.5%) to the Under following a game in which they trailed by 15-plus points at the half, including 34-15 (69.4%) to the Under since 2020, covering the total by an average margin of 7.93 points per game. Since 2003, playoff underdogs of two or more points coming off a win that went under the total are 210-171-4 (55.1%). The Under falls into a profitable 965-736-68 (56.7%) NBA totals system of mine that invests on the under in certain games with a posted total of less than 223 points.

However, bettors who like the over also have technical support. Since 2011, NBA Conference Finals or NBA Finals games in which the total is greater than the total in the previous game are 35-20-1 (63.6%) to the Over, covering the total by an average margin of +4.37 points per game. This situation is 24-9-1 (72.7%) to the Over since 2016, covering the total by an average of +6.3 points per game in that span.

In the last ten NBA postseasons, the better seeds own a 6-3 edge in series wins and a 30-21 game wins edge during that span.  This will be the ninth time in 10 seasons that the West representative had a better regular-season record, and the team with the better regular-season record is 8-2.  In the last nine postseasons, the outright winner is 47-2-2 ATS (95.9%) in the NBA Finals.

Since the start of the 2013 playoffs, NBA Finals home favorites of 4.5 points or more are 21-6 SU and 18-8-1 ATS (69.2%). Home teams/favorites are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in the last nine NBA Finals Game 1s, winning by an average margin of +13.8 points per game.  The Nuggets are a perfect 8-0 at home in the playoffs and are 42-7 at home on the season.  Miami was 17-24 on the road during the regular season and had a negative Net Rating on the road, a significant drop from +8.5 at home.

San Diego Padres (-120) at Miami Marlins

Report: Since 2002, MLB home underdogs in games with a total of 7 to 8 runs are 1703-2320 SU (42.3%; -4.6% ROI) and 2046-1623 RL (-1.8% ROI) following a game in which they had eleven or fewer hits, losing by an average margin of -0.9 runs per game.  Since 2010, MLB road favorites with a worse win percentage coming off a road loss are 451-320 SU (58.5%; +5.4% ROI) and 355-414 RL (+3.5% ROI) with revenge for a road defeat, including 162-87 SU (65.1%; +16.6% ROI) and 130-119 RL (+10.6% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +1.71 runs per game.

Finally, since 2009, MLB home underdogs coming off a game that went under the total where both teams failed to score in the first inning are 1194-1709 SU (41.1%; -6.7% ROI) and 1530-1365 RL (-6.6% ROI), including 324-528 SU (38%; -10.7% ROI) and 426-426 RL (-9.9% ROI) since 2019.

Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks (-175)

Report: Since 2004, MLB home favorites coming off three consecutive wins are 183-80 SU (69.6%; +10.3% ROI) and 117-114 RL (+8.4% ROI) in game 4 of a series, including 51-17 SU (75%; +12.5% ROI) and 41-27 RL (60.3%; +19% ROI) since 2019. These teams have won by an average margin of +2.41 runs per game in that span. Since 2008, MLB road teams coming off back-to-back losses by 2 or more runs are 677-918 SU (42.4%; -4.8% ROI) and 861-731 RL (-2.3% ROI) in the final game of a series.

Finally, Colorado applies to very negative 2619-4650 (36%; -4.2% ROI) and 2286 systems of mine that have cost bettors over -$40,500 against the run line since 2002.

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