Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Tuesday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Seattle Kraken at Dallas Stars (-135)
Note: Since 2000, Pacific Division home underdogs are just 332-473 (41.2%; -7.1% ROI), including 65-126 (34%; -22.9% ROI) since 2019. These teams are 23-42 (35.4%; -19.9% ROI) in the playoffs over the last 23 years, losing by an average margin of -0.85 goals per game. Since 2010, road favorites priced from -120 and -200 from Game 50 out are 475-267 (64%; +7.7% ROI), winning by an average margin of +0.62 goals per game. These teams are 78-52 (60%; +1.7% ROI) in the playoffs, including 13-7 (65%; +9.8% ROI) since 2021, winning by an average of +0.90 goals per game.
Finally, conference road favorites of -180 or less with more or equal rest are 1207-796 (60.3%; +6% ROI) in games with a total of less than six goals, including 147-98 (60%; +5.5% ROI) in the playoffs. Take Dallas and invest with confidence.
Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets (-5.5) (-110)
Note: Since 2009, playoff home favorites coming off a loss are 208-158-7 (56.8%) to the Under, including 48-33 (59.3%) to the Under since 2020, covering the total by an average of 2.98 points per game. Since 2000, Round 2 NBA playoff games with a total of 220 or more points are 78-54-8 (59.1%) to the Under, covering the total by an average margin of 4.46 points per game. From Round 2 forward, NBA playoff games with posted totals of greater than 227 points are 11-3 (78.6%) to the Under.
The home side remains undefeated in this series and the Nuggets went 34-7 at Ball Arena in the regular season and are 5-0 in the playoffs. Denver’s home court advantage is enhanced by Colorado’s elevation and this is the third game in five days. Fatigue is a legitimate concern for the Suns as both Kevin Durant and Devin Booker are averaging 42 minutes per game.
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners (-165)
Note: Since 2009, divisional home favorites of -165 or greater are 902-425 SU (68%; +2% ROI) and 669-657 RL (+3.3% ROI) following a loss, including 210-78 SU (72.9%; +7.3% ROI) and 162-126 RL (+10.4% ROI) since 2020. This situation improves to 95-27 SU (77.9%; +17.1% ROI) and 75-47 RL (+23.6% ROI) since 2020 in games before the All-Star break with a +2.8 runs per game margin of victory. Since 2016, home favorites of -140 or greater in game 2 of a series are 124-60 SU (67.4%; +4.2% ROI) coming off a game as home favorites with starting pitchers who won their previous outing, winning by an average margin of +1.62 runs per game.
Since 2020, Seattle is 35-14 SU (71.4%; +26.7% ROI) and 27-22 RL (+11.5% ROI) versus the Rangers. Since May 3, 2017, the Mariners are 41-13 SU (75.9%; +29.5% ROI) with starting pitchers coming off a road win in his previous outing in pre-All Star break affairs. Finally, Seattle applies to very good 975-721, 551-391 and 382-241 situations of mine that date to 2016 and invest on certain divisional favorites.
New York Mets (-190) at Cincinnati Reds
Note: Since 2005, MLB favorites of -200 or greater are 1198-489 SU (71%; +2% ROI) and 844-666 RL (+4.2% ROI) in the first game of a series, winning by an average margin of +2.01 runs per game. This situation is 298-117 SU (71.8%; +2.3% ROI) and 233-182 RL (+2.3% ROI) since 2020. Since 2000, rested MLB favorites of -135 or greater coming off a game as home favorites in which they allowed six or more runs are 216-89 SU (70.8%; +12.8% ROI) and 132-117 (+13.4% ROI), winning by an average margin of +1.77 runs per game.
New York is 44-9 SU (83%; +37.6% ROI) and 38-15 RL (71.7%; +44.8% ROI) since April 12, 2022, following a loss in which they had two or more walks. Finally, MLB road favorites of -200 or greater are 624-250 SU (71.4%; +3.5% ROI) and 496-331 RL (60%; +4.2% ROI) since 2006, winning by an average margin of +2.37 runs per game.
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