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New York Knicks at Miami Heat UNDER 207 points
Note: The Under falls into profitable 958-728-68 (56.8%), 578-453 (56.1%) and 510-328-35 (60.9%) NBA totals systems of mine that invest on the under in certain games with a posted total of less than 223 points. Since 2006, NBA playoff games between two .501 or greater teams are 154-115-9 (57.2%) to the Under in games with a posted total between 195 and 210 points. Finally, the under applies to a very good 200-128 (61%) NBA totals system that dates to 1996 and invests on the under between teams with winning records if the home team has gone over the total by 36 or more combined points in their last five games. This situation is 7-2 (77.8%) to the Under since 2017.
Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers (-3) (-110)
Note: Since 2000, NBA playoff home favorites priced from -3 and -4 points are 33-9 SU (78.6%) and 31-11 ATS (73.8%) following a straight-up and against-the-spread home win, covering by an average margin of +6.45 points per game over that span. Golden State has struggled away from the Chase Center this season, going 13-33 SU and 14-32 ATS. The Warriors have posted the league’s 23rd ranked Net Rating on the road per NBA Advanced Stats. The Lakers have won seven straight at home and have covered four consecutive games at Crypto.com Arena.
However, NBA playoff teams coming off a win in which they allowed 25 or more assists are just 46-62 SU (42.6%) and 44-61-3 ATS (41.9%) since 2000 versus opponents off a loss, failing to cover the spread by an average of -2.78 points per game. Since the 2012-13 season, the Warriors are 33-11 SU (75%) and 30-14 ATS (68.2%) following a loss in the playoffs, including16-4 ATS (80%) when trailing in a series. Golden State has won these games by an average of +9.39 points per game and covered the spread by an average of +5.91 points per game.
Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) (+100)
Note: Since 2008, large favorites of -210 or more are 1848-645 (74.1%; +4.2% ROI) straight-up and 1441-1046 (57.9%; +4.4% ROI) against the run line in games with a total of eight or more runs, including 1251-404 (75.6%; +5.7% ROI) straight-up and 985-671 (59.5%; +4.6% ROI) against the run line since 2016. Since 2005, MLB favorites of -200 or greater are 1197-487 SU (71.1%; +2% ROI) and 843-664 RL (+4.3% ROI) in the first game of a series, winning by an average margin of +2.01 runs per game. This situation is 297-115 SU (72.1%; +2.6% ROI) and 232-180 RL (+2.6% ROI) since 2020.
Finally, MLB favorites of more than -185 coming off a loss in which they led after six innings are 226-93 SU (70.8%; +2.5% ROI) and 149-119 RL (+5.6% ROI) since 2000, winning by an average of +1.75 runs per game.
Oakland Athletics at New York Yankees (-185)
Note: Since 2008, large favorites of -210 or more are 1848-645 (74.1%; +4.2% ROI) straight-up and 1441-1046 (57.9%; +4.4% ROI) against the run line in games with a total of eight or more runs, including 1251-404 (75.6%; +5.7% ROI) straight-up and 985-671 (59.5%; +4.6% ROI) against the run line since 2016. Since 2005, MLB favorites of -200 or greater are 1197-487 SU (71.1%; +2% ROI) and 843-664 RL (+4.3% ROI) in the first game of a series, winning by an average margin of +2.01 runs per game. This situation is 297-115 SU (72.1%; +2.6% ROI) and 232-180 RL (+2.6% ROI) since 2020.
Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers (-175)
Note: Since 2010, NHL home favorites are 538-335 (61.6%) versus teams off a loss by four-plus goals, including 63-30 (67.7%) since 2022. These games are 50-39-4 (56.2%) to the Over in that span. Since 1998, NHL home favorites in January affairs or in the playoffs are 94-32 (74.6%; +14.9% ROI) versus opponents coming off a loss by more than three goals, winning by an average margin of +1.21 goals per game in that span. These games are also 69-48-9 (59%) to the Under in that span.
Finally, since 2000, NHL playoff home favorites are 42-23-7 (64.6%) to the Under versus opponents entering off a loss by at least four goals, covering the total by an average margin of -0.51 goals per game.
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