Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Friday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays (-180)
Note: Since 2005, MLB favorites of -200 or greater are 1196-485 SU (71.1%; +2.1% ROI) and 843-661 RL (+4.5% ROI) in the first game of a series, winning by an average margin of +2.02 runs per game. This situation is 296-113 SU (72.4%; +3% ROI) and 232-177 RL (+3.3% ROI) since 2020. New York falls into a very negative 2603-4618 (36%; -4.1% ROI) straight-up and -2.2% ROI run line system of mine that dates to 2006 and invests against road underdogs of +130 or greater versus .551 or greater opposition. This situation is 591-1205 (32.9%; -9.7% ROI) straight-up and -6.2% ROI against the run line since 2019, losing by an average margin of -1.48 runs per game.
The Rays are 153-60 SU (71.8%; +9.2% ROI) as home favorites of -151 or greater, including 71-21 SU (77.2%) since 2021, winning by an average margin of +2.17 runs per game. The Rays are 71-37 SU (65.7%; +9.5% ROI) and 58-50 RL (+16.1% ROI) since 2015 as favorites with revenge against the opposing starting pitcher in games with a total between 8.5 and 10.5 runs.
Detroit Tigers at St. Louis Cardinals (-220)
Note: Since 2008, large favorites of -210 or more are 1846-642 (74.2%; +4.3% ROI) straight-up and 1441-1041 (58.1%; +4.5% ROI) against the run line in games with a total of eight or more runs, including 1249-401 (75.7%; +5.8% ROI) straight-up and 985-666 (59.7%; +4.8% ROI) against the run line since 2016. Since 2005, MLB favorites of -200 or greater are 1196-485 SU (71.1%; +2.1% ROI) and 843-661 RL (+4.5% ROI) in the first game of a series, winning by an average margin of +2.02 runs per game. This situation is 296-113 SU (72.4%; +3% ROI) and 232-177 RL (+3.3% ROI) since 2020.
St. Louis applies to a very good 1253-506 SU (71.2%; +3.3% ROI) and 880-771 RL (+3.6% ROI) system of mine that dates to 2006 and invests on certain large home favorites. These teams have won by an average margin of +1.94 runs per game over that span. Finally, since 2004, the Cardinals are a profitable 500-324 SU (60.7%; +7.5% ROI) and +2.2% ROI against the run line following an upset loss as favorites, including 29-13 SU (69%; +22.3% ROI) and 25-17 RL (+12.8% ROI) since the beginning of the 2022 season.
Boston Celtics (-2) (-110) at Philadelphia 76ers
Note: Since 2006, NBA playoff road favorites are 201-116 SU (63.4%) and 174-135-8 ATS (56.3%), including 106-50 SU (67.9%) and 95-58-3 ATS (62.1%) since 2016. However, NBA 3 seeds or better at home in Game 2 or 3 of a playoff series are 102-29 SU (77.9%) and 84-45-2 ATS (65.1%) coming off a loss, covering the spread by an average margin of +4.79 points per game over that span.
New Jersey Devils at Carolina Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 goals
Note: Despite an ugly performance in Game 1 in which he allowed three goals on 11 shots before being pulled, New Jersey goaltender Akira Schmid owns an elite 1.84 GAA and a .935 save percentage in six playoff starts this year. Schmid also posted a 2.13 GAA and a .922 save percentage in eighteen regular-season outings. Carolina remains without Max Pacioretty (Achilles), Andrei Svechnikov (knee) and Teuvo Teravainen (hand).
Since 2000, NHL playoff home favorites are 42-22-7 (63.6%) to the Under versus teams coming off a loss by four or more goals, covering the total by an average margin of 0.54 goals per game. This situation is 8-4 (66.7%) to the Under since May 28, 2021, covering the total by an average of 0.67 goals per game (5-1 L/6). Since 1996, NHL road teams with revenge are 173-103 (62.7%) to the Under in games with a total of 5.5 following a divisional loss by three or more goals. This situation is a perfect 3-0 to the Under this season.
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