Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report – 5/4

May 4, 2023

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Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report!  Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Thursday’s games.  Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!

Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors (-6) (-110)

Note: Los Angeles improved to 4-1 in its last five meetings with the Warriors following Tuesday’s impressive 117-112 win in Game 1.  The Lakers lead all playoff teams with a 103.9 Defensive Rating and posted a 104.0 Defensive Rating in four regular-season games against Golden State.  The Lakers are just 15-21 SU and 16-19-1 ATS as road underdogs this season.

Since 2009, playoff home favorites coming off a loss are 206-156-7 (56.9%) to the Under, including 46-31 (59.7%) to the Under since 2020, covering the total by an average of 2.98 points per game. Since 2010, NBA playoff teams coming off a win in which they allowed over 25 assists are 49-39-3 (55.7%) to the Under, including 22-14 (61.1%) to the Under since 2020. Since 2000, teams coming off a playoff win as underdogs of at least four points are 146-113-11 (56.4%) to the Under when facing the same opponent.

Since 1996, NBA playoff games with totals of 220 points or more are 70-42 (62.5%) to the Under in the second round, including 58-28 (67.4%) to the Under since 2017. If the total is 227 or greater, the under is 18-6 (75%) since 2000, covering the total by an average margin of 19.08 points per game (18-4 L/22). The under falls into a very good 39-13 (75%) NBA totals system that dates to 1996 and invests on the under in games with a total of 220 or more points if one of the teams made nineteen or more three-pointers in their previous game.

Seattle Kraken at Dallas Stars (-195)

Note: The Kraken have played well on offense, ranking eighth in expected goals with a 50.63 xGF%.  Seattle goaltender Philipp Grubauer posted a .934 SV% and a +2.9 goals saved above expected (GSAx) in Round 1, while the Kraken’s penalty kill was successful 89% of the time against Colorado.

Entering this series, Dallas ranked second with a 2.28 xGA/60 and boasted the league’s fourth-best penalty kill at 82%.  Goaltender Jake Oettinger entered this series with a .929 SV% and a +4.3 GSAx in six playoff games.  Since 2007, NHL home favorites of -151 or greater coming off a home game are 71-32 (68.9%; +4.1% ROI) in May affairs, including 34-13 (72.3%; +5.7% ROI) since 2020.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Tampa Bay Rays (-195)

Note: The Pirates are 1-26 (3.7%; -89.4% ROI) straight-up and 4-23 (14.8%; -70.8% ROI) since October 9, 2013, as underdogs of more than +145 with a starting pitcher coming off a road win in which he had four or more strikeouts, losing by an average of 4.26 runs per game over that span.  The Pirates are 2-19 (9.5%; -79.1% ROI) straight-up and 4-17 (19%; -62.7% ROI) against the run line in road affairs with a starting pitcher who won his previous outing away from home since September 14, 2020, losing by an average margin of 3.24 runs per game.

Since 2015, the Rays are 152-60 SU (71.7%; +9% ROI) as home favorites of -151 or greater, including 70-21 SU (76.9%) since 2021, winning by an average margin of +2.19 runs per game.  Since 2018, the Rays are 285-165 (63.3%; +12.4% ROI) straight-up and 255-195 (56.7%; +11.8% ROI) against the run line following a win.

Trend of the Day

The Washington Nationals are 0-23 straight-up and 6-17 (26.1%; -53.9% ROI) against the run line as underdogs of more than +110 and less than +255 following a one-run win.

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