Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Tuesday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Cleveland Indians at Baltimore Orioles (-135)
Report: Since 2014, MLB favorites coming off a shutout loss are 241-160 SU (60.1%; +5.6% ROI) and 177-222 RL (+4.4% ROI) with a starting pitcher who was an underdog in his previous outing, including 75-39 SU (65.8%; +15.4% ROI) and 59-55 RL (+11.8% ROI) since 2020. These teams improve to 273-165 SU (62.3%; +3.6% ROI) and 194-225 RL (+6.9% ROI) since August 1, 2004, as favorites of -126 or more, including 55-15 SU (78.6%; +27.4% ROI) and 47-23 RL (67.1%; +45.4% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +2.49 runs per game.
Finally, Cleveland applies to very negative 2617-4647 (36%; -4.2% ROI) and 2284-4078 (35.9%; -4.4% ROI) systems of mine that have cost bettors over -$40,500 against the run line since 2002.
Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals (-190)
Report: Since 2012, MLB favorites of -140 or greater in game 2 (or beyond) of a series are 757-409 SU (64.9%; +3% ROI) and 558-606 RL (+2.2% ROI) following a game that was scoreless after the sixth inning, winning by an average margin of +1.32 runs per game. Kansas City is 2-27 SU (6.9%; -82.8% ROI) and 13-16 RL (-20% ROI) since July 30, 2011, as road underdogs of +116 or greater coming off a shutout win, losing by an average of 2.03 runs per game. Since 2003, Kansas City starter Zack Greinke is 12-31 SU (27.9%; -36.5% ROI) and 18-16 RL (-15.4% ROI) as a road underdog if his team is coming off a win as underdogs, including 0-10 SU and 2-8 RL since April 26, 2019.
Greinke is 3-19 SU (13.6%; -61% ROI) and 7-15 RL (31.8%; -40.7% ROI) since June 1, 2008, as an underdog of +155 or greater, losing by an average of 4.09 runs per game. Finally, MLB road underdogs of +136 or greater in the final game of a series are 359-707 SU (33.7%; -9.8% ROI) and 451-429 RL (-7.3% ROI) with a starting pitcher who is coming off back-to-back losses in his previous two outings, including 51-133 SU (27.7%; -25.8% ROI) and 83-101 RL (-16.6% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of 1.7 runs per game.
Tampa Bay Rays (-190) at Chicago Cubs
Report: Since 2006, MLB road favorites of -200 or greater are 633-253 SU (71.4%; +3.6% ROI) and 505-334 RL (60.2%; +4.5% ROI), including 441-154 SU (74.1%; +5.5% ROI) and 359-202 RL (64%; +9% ROI) if they have a .501 or better winning percentage. Since 2003, MLB home underdogs with a total between 7 and 8 runs are 1703-2320 SU (42.3%; -4.6% ROI) and 2046-1623 RL (-2% ROI) following a game in which they had eleven hits or fewer. Since 2002, MLB road favorites of -130 or greater coming off a game in which they used less than five pitchers are 1094-661 SU (62.3%; +2.4% ROI) and 862-891 RL (+1% ROI), including 431-251 SU (63.2%; +3.6% ROI) and 351-331 RL (+4.2% ROI) versus non-divisional opponents. These teams have won by an average margin of +1.75 runs per game in that span.
Finally, since 2009, MLB home underdogs coming off a game that went under the total in which both teams failed to score in the first inning are just 1192-1707 SU (41.1%; -6.7% ROI) and 1528-1363 RL (-6.6% ROI), including 253-384 SU (39.7%; -6.5% ROI) and 331-306 RL (-6.7% ROI) since 2020.
Bonus MLB Betting Trends for Tuesday, May 30
- Since 2019, the Rangers are 77-119 SU (39.3%; -16.5% ROI) and 97-99 RL (-5.9% ROI) following back-to-back games in which they did not commit an error
- Oakland is 57-133 SU (30%; -12.7% ROI) and 87-103 RL (-9.5% ROI) as underdogs of more than +160 since 2014, losing by an average of 2.06 runs per game. This situation is 1-19 SU and 5-15 RL since April 25, 2023.
- The Dodgers are 107-39 SU (73.3%; +15.2% ROI) and 67-53 RL (+13.9% ROI) in home games with a total of nine or more runs, including 57-14 SU (80.3%; +15.1% ROI) and 44-27 RL (+18.5% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +2.54 runs per game.
- The Dodgers are 70-20 SU (77.8%; +9.7% ROI) and 60-30 RL (66.7%; +23.6% ROI) since September 24, 2020, coming off a home game versus starting pitchers with an ERA of 4.01 or worse, winning by an average of +2.72 runs per game.
- The Braves are 68-22 SU (75.6%; +6.5% ROI) and 51-39 RL (+3% ROI) as favorites of -211 or greater since 2010, including 49-13 SU (79%; +9.9% ROI) and 36-26 RL (+2.2% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +2.5 runs per game
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