Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report – 5/3

May 3, 2023

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Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report!  Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Wednesday’s games.  Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!

Edmonton Oilers (-118) at Vegas Golden Knights

Note: Since 2000, NHL underdogs coming off three or more consecutive wins are 816-1304 (38.5%; -11.8% ROI), including 108-202 (34.8%) since 2020, losing by an average of -0.88 goals per game and costing bettors a -18.9% return on investment.  Since 2010, NHL road favorites off a game as favorites are 604-325 (65%; +11.7% ROI) versus .401 or greater opposition, winning by an average margin of +0.70 goals per game.

Edmonton led all playoff teams in the first round in goals per game (4.17) and power-play percentage (56.3%). Nine of the Oilers’ 25 goals against Los Angeles came with the man advantage.  Edmonton finished with an expected goals share of 54.13% in Round 1, third-best behind only New Jersey and Vegas.  The Golden Knights posted a pedestrian 18.8% success rate on the power play and a 56.3% success rate on the penalty kill in their first-round win over Winnipeg.

Vegas veteran goaltender Laurent Brossoit boasts a career save percentage of .922 and a 2.14 goals-against average in ten games against Edmonton.  However, all four regular-season games between these teams had seven or more goals.

Pittsburgh Pirates at Tampa Bay Rays (-210)

Note: Since 2000, .551 or greater road underdogs of +175 or greater are just 801-1957 SU (29%; -10.7% ROI) and 1101-1274 RL (-6.6% ROI), including 224-648 SU (25.7%; -19% ROI) and 372-500 RL (-12.3% ROI) since 2019. The Rays are 151-60 SU (71.6%; +8.8% ROI) as home favorites of -151 or greater, including 69-21 SU (76.7%) since 2021, winning by an average margin of +2.13 runs per game.  Pittsburgh is 98-160 SU (38%; -14.1% ROI) and 126-130 RL (-8% ROI) versus left-handed starters, including 42-72 SU (36.8%; -10.1% ROI) since 2021.

Pittsburgh starter Mitch Keller is utilizing a cutter this season, which he throws 25% of the time.  The new pitch has been instrumental in his 3.53 ERA, 3.90 xERA, and 3.80 xFIP through six starts.  Keller’s strikeout rate has been backed by an improved swinging strike rate and an increase in called strikes (29.8% CSW%; 25.7% career).

Cleveland Guardians -130 at New York Yankees

Note: Since 2006, MLB road favorites priced between -140 and -190 are 658-382 (63.3%; +4.2% ROI) straight-up and 504-461 (+7.3% ROI) against the run line in the first two months of the regular season, including 213-98 (68.5%; +11.9% ROI) straight-up and 177-134 (+14.6% ROI) against the run line since 2019. New York falls into a very negative 1691-2312 (42.2%; -4.7% ROI) straight-up and -2.0% ROI run line system of mine that invests against certain home underdogs with a total between 7 and 8 runs. This situation is 243-369 (39.7%; -8.1% ROI) straight-up and -3.7% ROI against the run line since 2021.

Cleveland starter Shane Bieber toes the rubber with a 4.73 xERA and 4.32 xFIP through six outings, posting a career-worst 9.9% K-BB%.  Bieber’s velocity is down 3 mph compared to last season and his swinging strike rate has declined four percent year over year.

San Francisco Giants at Houston Astros (-145)

Note: Since 2009, Houston is 206-130 SU (61.3%; +8.3% ROI) and 174-162 RL (+4.6% ROI) in afternoon home affairs, including 54-24 SU (69.2%; +10.7% ROI) and 39-39 RL (+4.8% ROI) since 2021.  The Astros are 17-0 SU and 9-8 RL (+3.3% ROI) since July 11, 2021, as home favorites following a loss in the same series, winning by an average margin of +3.06 runs per game over that span.

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