Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Saturday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Boston Celtics (-2.5) (-110) at Miami Heat
Report: The Boston Celtics are a perfect 10-0 ATS in playoff wins this year, covering the spread by an average margin of +9.3 points per game. Since 2016, the Celtics are 11-5 SU and ATS (68.8%) when facing elimination against conference opponents, including a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS since June 2, 2021. Since 2003, NBA playoff home teams are 75-89 SU and 65-98-1 ATS (39.9%) in Game 6 of a series, including 11-22 SU and 10-23 ATS (30.3%) since 2019, failing to cover the spread by an average of 3.44 points per game. Since 2009, NBA home underdogs in game 2 (or beyond) of a playoff series are 98-176 SU and 113-154-7 ATS (42.3%).
In Game 4, the Celtics finished with a 63.7% Effective Field Goal Percentage (92nd percentile) due to their hot shooting (40% on 3s) from beyond the arc. Boston committed just nine fouls and gave up 10 total free throws in Game 5. Boston’s Free-Throw Rate allowed was 8.5 (95th percentile), significantly better than what it had posted in the previous four games in this series (Free-Throw attempt rates of 28.0, 22.4, 19.6, and 18.1, respectively). Malcolm Brogdon is questionable for Game 6 as he continues to play through a partial torn tendon in his right elbow.
Since 2003, NBA playoff home favorites or road favorites coming off a home win in which more than 76% of their points were not free throws are 95-37 SU and 81-48-3 ATS (62.8%) versus .300 or greater opponents, winning by an average of +7.11 points per game. Since 2003, NBA playoff teams trailing 3-2 in a series and coming off a win are just 12-41 SU and 18-34-1 ATS (34.6%) in Game 6, losing by an average of -8.6 points per game and failing to cover the spread by an average of -5.74 points per game. This situation is 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS (11.1%) since September 14, 2020.
Since 2003, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in the Conference Finals are 36-27 SU and 38-25 ATS (60.3%), including 63.6% ATS since 2019, covering by +4.05 points per game. Since 2003, NBA playoff underdogs coming off a loss are 9-3 SU and 9-2-1 ATS (81.8%) in Game 6 of a series if they lead the series 3-2, covering the spread by an average of +8.46 points per game. The Heat shot well in Game 5 – 57.7% eFG% (73rd percentile) and 42% on three-pointers but turned the ball over on 20% of their possessions.
Since 2003, NBA playoff teams leading a series 3-2 and coming off consecutive losses are 6-1 SU and ATS (85.7%) in Game 6, winning by an average of +15.14 points per game and covering the spread by +13.79 points per game. This situation is a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS since May 3, 2003.
New York Mets (-200) at Colorado Rockies
Report: Since 2006, MLB road favorites of -200 or greater are 631-251 SU (71.5%; +3.7% ROI) and 503-332 RL (60.2%; +4.6% ROI), winning by an average margin of +2.37 runs per game and covering the run line by an average of +0.93 runs per game. Since 2014, MLB road favorites with a starting pitcher seeking revenge are 774-531 SU (59.3%; +2.5% ROI) and 613-691 RL (+1.4% ROI) versus teams they defeated in their previous matchup, including 202-129 SU (61%; +3.7% ROI) and 166-165 RL (+4.7% ROI) since 2021. These teams have won by an average of +1.23 runs per game in that span.
Finally, since 2002, MLB non-divisional favorites of -130 or greater coming off a game in which they used less than five pitchers are 431-248 SU (63.5%; +4% ROI) and 351-328 RL (+4.7% ROI) if the game went under the total, winning by an average of +1.77 runs per game.
Bonus Betting Trends for Saturday, May 27
- Since 2003, Game 6 of an NBA playoff series is 94-64-6 (59.5%) to the Under, including 16-10 (61.5%) to the Under since 2020, covering the total by an average margin of 4.42 points per game
- Los Angeles starter Shonei Ohtani is 0-14-2 to the Under since June as a favorite of more than -140 and less than -300
- New York starter Luis Severino is 0-10 to the Under since 2019 with a total of at least 7 runs and he is not a -160 or greater favorite
- The Dodgers are 26-55 SU (32.1%; -26.9% ROI) and 39-42 RL (-24.9% ROI) as road underdogs since 2015, losing by an average margin of 1.3 runs per game.
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