Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Friday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
New York Mets (-200) at Colorado Rockies
Report: Since 2006, MLB road favorites of -200 or greater are 629-251 SU (71.5%; +3.6% ROI) and 501-332 RL (+4.4% ROI), winning by an average of +2.37 runs per game. These teams improve to 437-153 SU (74.1%; +5.5% ROI) and 355-201 RL (63.8%; +8.8% ROI) if they are .501 or better on the season, winning by an average of +2.68 runs per game. Since 2005, MLB favorites of -200 or greater in the first game of a series are 1207-490 SU (71.1%; +2.1% ROI) and 852-668 RL (+4.5% ROI), winning by an average margin of +2.03 runs per game.
Since 2005, MLB favorites of -200 or greater with a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 0.85 or better who is coming off a loss in his previous outing are 265-91 SU (74.4%; +5.6% ROI) and 188-138 RL (+5.6% ROI), including 91-25 SU (78.4%; +9.8% ROI) and 68-48 RL (+3.4% ROI) since 2019. Finally, New York starter Max Scherzer is 13-2 SU (86.7%; +31% ROI) and 11-4 RL (73.3%; +37.6% ROI) since May 1, 2021, following an outing in which he did not allow a run.
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs (-155)
Report: Since 2009, divisional home favorites of -165 or greater are 906-427 SU (68%; +2% ROI) and 672-660 RL (+3.3% ROI) following a loss, including 214-80 SU (72.8%; +7.2% ROI) and 165-129 RL (+10.3% ROI) since 2020 with a +2.04 margin of victory. These teams are 99-29 SU (77.3%; +16.3% ROI) and 78-50 RL (60.9%; +22.3% ROI) before the All-Star break over the past three-plus seasons, winning by an average margin of +2.72 runs per game in that span.
Since 2005, MLB home favorites of -130 or greater in games with a total of fewer than eight runs are 936-511 SU (64.7%; +3.2% ROI) and 610-776 RL (+1% ROI) versus league opponents, winning by an average margin of +1.05 runs per game.
Chicago White Sox (-145) at Detroit Tigers
Report: Detroit applies to a very negative 245-392 SU (38.5%; -14.3% ROI) and 345-292 RL (-10.3% ROI) system of mine that invests against certain divisional underdogs coming off a win versus .499 or worse opposition in games with a total of less than eleven runs. Since 2000, MLB road favorites priced between -140 and -190 are 672-404 SU (62.5%; +2.8% ROI) and 517-484 RL (+6% ROI) versus league opponents in the first two months of the season, including 227-120 SU (65.4%; +6.8% ROI) and 190-157 RL (+10.3% ROI) since 2019. These teams have won by an average margin of +1.81 runs per game in that span.
Finally, since 2010, MLB road favorites coming off a road loss are 449-318 SU (58.5%; +5.4% ROI) and 353-412 RL (+3.5% ROI) with revenge for a road loss versus teams with a better record, including 160-85 SU (65.3%; +16.9% ROI) and 128-117 RL (+10.6% ROI) since 2019.
Bonus MLB Betting Trends
- The Houston Astros are 50-11 SU (82%; +24.4% ROI) and 35-26 RL (+8.9% ROI) since July 30, 2018, as favorites of -130 or greater following a road affair in which they had six or fewer hits, winning by an average of +2.64 runs per game
- Cleveland starter Shane Bieber is 18-5 (78.3%; +23.9% ROI) as a favorite following an outing in which he lasted seven or more innings
- Baltimore starter Kevin Gausman is 7-1 (87.5%; +51.4% ROI) since August 1, 2018, following an outing in which he lasted seven or more innings
- The Kansas City Royals are 70-52 (57.4%; +2.3% ROI) as favorites since August 28, 2018
- Philadelphia starter Taijuan Walker is 2-21 (8.7%; -82.5% ROI) since July 24, 2021, versus .491 or better opposition
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