Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Thursday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Miami Heat at Boston Celtics (-8) (-110)
Report: Teams down 0-3 in a playoff series are 0-149 in league history. 18 of those 149 teams went down 0-3 with the first two games at home, and 15 of those 18 were swept. The under falls into profitable 962-736-68 (56.7%), 526-350-25 (60%), and 513-334-35 (60.6%) NBA totals systems of mine that invest on the under in certain games with a posted total of fewer than 223 points. Prior to this postseason, #2 seeds were on a 29-11 SU and 25-15 ATS (62.5%) run as favorites in the Conference Finals.
Since 2003, NBA playoff home favorites or road favorites coming off a home win in which more than 76% of their points were not free throws are 94-37 SU (71.8%) and 80-48-3 ATS (62.5%) versus .300 or greater opponents, winning by an average of +7.1 points per game. Since 2008, playoff home favorites in games 3-5 of a series are 128-56 SU (69.6%) and 101-81-2 ATS (55.5%) following a game as underdogs, including 16-7 SU (69.6%) and 15-8 ATS (65.2%) since 2021, covering the spread by an average margin of +4.67 points per game in that span.
Since 2004, playoff teams with a point spread that is eight-plus points higher than the average line in their games during the regular season are just 211-629 SU (25.1%) and 360-473-7 ATS (43.2%), losing by an average of -8.35 points per game. NBA playoff favorites are on a profitable 13-3 SU and ATS (81.3%) run in Game 5 of the Conference Finals, including going 2-0 SU and ATS last postseason. Finally, prior to this postseason, #2 seeds were on a 29-11 SU and 25-15 ATS (62.5%) run as favorites in the Conference Finals.
Injury Update: Gabe Vincent, Miami’s starting point guard, rolled his ankle in the fourth quarter of Game 4 and briefly exited the game. Kyle Lowry is not 100% and the Heat are already missing Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo.
Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners (-240)
Report: Seattle falls into a very good 2225-871 SU (71.9%; +2% ROI) and 1411-1168 RL (+2.3% ROI) system of mine that dates to 2003 and invests on certain large home favorites from Game 40 out. This situation is 654-211 SU (75.6%; +5.5% ROI) and 493-372 RL (+2.6% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average margin of +2.22 runs per game. Oakland applies to a negative 439-961 SU (31.4%; -10.2% ROI) and 555-601 RL (-8.3% ROI) system of mine that invests against certain large road underdogs with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.81 or worse and is coming off losses in their previous two outings. This situation is 74-230 SU (24.3%; -28.2% ROI) and 137-168 RL (-10.8% ROI) since 2019.
Seattle is 42-14 since May 3, 2017, with a starting pitcher coming off a road win in his previous outing in games before the All-Star break, winning by an average of +1.5 runs per game in that span. Finally, Oakland is 56-129 SU (30.3%; -12% ROI) and 85-100 RL (-9.4% ROI) as large underdogs since 2014, losing by an average margin of -2.05 runs per game. The Athletics are 27-73 SU (27%; -19.7% ROI) and 44-56 RL (-10.7% ROI) in this role since 2020, losing by -2.43 runs per game.
Chicago White Sox (-140) at Detroit Tigers
Report: Since 2000, MLB road favorites priced between -140 and -190 are 672-403 SU (62.5%; +2.9% ROI) and 517-483 RL (+6.1% ROI) versus league opponents in the first two months of the season, including 227-119 SU (65.6%; +7.1% ROI) and 190-156 RL (+10.6% ROI) since 2019. These teams have won by an average margin of +1.83 runs per game in that span. Since 2011, MLB road favorites of -130 or greater coming off a game in which they used less than five pitchers are 1091-657 SU (62.4%; +2.5% ROI) and 859-887 RL (+1% ROI) if their previous game went under the total, winning by an average margin of +1.47 runs per game.
Since 2015, MLB favorites of -130 or greater in the first game of a series are 729-423 SU (63.3%; +1% ROI) and 546-603 RL (+1% ROI) following a win in which they scored between 3-6 runs, winning by an average margin of +1.26 runs per game. Finally, the White Sox are 93-41 SU (69.4%; +10.3% ROI) and 72-61 RL (+14.7% ROI) since May 1, 2019, as favorites of -125 or greater following a game in which they scored in two or fewer separate innings.
St. Louis Cardinals (-165) at Cincinnati Reds
Report: Cincinnati applies to very negative 244-391 SU (38.4%; -14.4% ROI) and 244-339 SU (41.9%; -2.2% ROI) systems of mine that invest against certain divisional underdogs coming off a win versus .499 or worse opposition in games with a total of fewer than eleven runs. These situations have produced a negative ROI of 10% or worse since 2016. Since 2000, MLB road favorites priced between -140 and -190 are 672-403 SU (62.5%; +2.9% ROI) and 517-483 RL (+6.1% ROI) versus league opponents in the first two months of the season, including 227-119 SU (65.6%; +7.1% ROI) and 190-156 RL (+10.6% ROI) since 2019. These teams have won by an average margin of +1.83 runs per game in that span.
Since 2004, St. Louis is 504-326 SU (60.7%) and 326-346 RL (+2.4% ROI) following an upset loss as a favorite, including 45-18 SU (71.4%; +23.4% ROI) and 37-26 RL (+13.2% ROI) since June 26, 2021. The Cardinals are 32-13 SU (71.1%; +17.4% ROI) and 29-16 RL (64.4%; +27.2% ROI) since August 10, 2021, as road favorites following a game in which their starting pitcher allowed two or more runs.
Finally, the Cardinals are 24-7 SU (77.4%; +19.4% ROI) and 17-14 RL (+10.5% ROI) since September 18, 2020, as favorites of -126 or greater with a starting pitcher coming off a win (and quality start) in his previous outing if he finished with eight or fewer strikeouts.
San Diego Padres (-180) at Washington Nationals
Report: Since 2000, MLB road favorites priced between -140 and -190 are 672-403 SU (62.5%; +2.9% ROI) and 517-483 RL (+6.1% ROI) versus league opponents in the first two months of the season, including 227-119 SU (65.6%; +7.1% ROI) and 190-156 RL (+10.6% ROI) since 2019. These teams have won by an average margin of +1.83 runs per game in that span. Since 2011, MLB road favorites of -130 or greater coming off a game in which they used less than five pitchers are 1091-657 SU (62.4%; +2.5% ROI) and 859-887 RL (+1% ROI) if their previous game went under the total, winning by an average margin of +1.47 runs per game.
Finally, Washington falls into a very negative 1191-1705 SU (41.1%; -6.7% ROI) and 1527-1361 RL (-6.6% ROI) system of mine that dates to 2009 and invests against certain home underdogs coming off a game that went under the total. This situation is 252-382 SU (39.7%; -6.4% ROI) and 330-304 RL (-6.6% ROI) since 2020.
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