Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Tuesday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Boston Celtics at Miami Heat (-1.5) (-110)
Report: Since 2003, NBA playoff teams coming off a win as underdogs of four or more points are 89-186 SU (32.4%) and 108-165-2 ATS (39.6%) versus the same team. Since 2003, teams off back-to-back losses in the Conference Finals are 37-25 ATS (59.7%), covering the spread by an average margin of +2.81 points per game. The Celtics are 69-54 ATS (56.1%) since January 1, 2010, with less than two days of rest coming off a game in which they shot less than 40% from the field, including 10-1 SU and ATS (90.9%) since December 30, 2021.
Since 2003, NBA playoff teams down 0-3 in a series are just 28-55 SU and 34-46-3 ATS (42.5%), losing by an average margin of -5.4 points per game. Since 2003, NBA playoff teams that are averaging 103 or more points per game are 42-56-1 ATS (42.9%) following a game in which they trailed by 15-plus points at the half, including 18-29 ATS (38.3%) since 2020. NBA playoff conference home favorites of -2.5 or less are 15-5 SU (75%) and 14-6 ATS (70%) in Game 4 if they are leading the series.
Since 2003, NBA playoff home favorites or road favorites coming off a home win in which more than 76% of their points were not free throws are 94-36 SU (72.3%) and 80-47-3 ATS (63%) versus .300 or greater opponents, winning by an average of +7.25 points per game. Finally, the Celtics are 0-17 ATS since June 16, 2022, versus teams that have failed to cover the spread in consecutive meetings, provided they had a certain assist-to-turnover ratio in their last matchup.
San Diego Padres (-150) at Washington Nationals
Report: Since 2011, MLB road favorites of -130 or greater coming off a game in which they used less than five pitchers are 1089-656 SU (62.4%; +2.5% ROI) and 857-886 RL (+1% ROI) if their previous game went under the total, winning by an average margin of +1.47 runs per game. Since 2006, MLB road favorites priced between -140 and -190 are 669-400 SU (62.6%; +3% ROI) and 514-480 RL (+6.1% ROI) in the first two months of the season versus league opponents, winning by an average of +1.63 runs per game. This situation is 224-116 SU (65.9%; +7.5% ROI) and 187-153 RL (+10.7% ROI) since 2019 with an average margin of victory of +1.85 runs per game.
Finally, San Diego starter Yu Darvish is 23-12 SU (65.7%; +5.2% ROI) as a favorite in games before the All-Star break, winning by an average of +1.1 runs per game.
Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees (-170)
Report: Since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are just 2615-4640 SU (36%; -4.2% ROI) and 3717-3119 RL (-2.3% ROI) versus .551 or greater opposition, including 603-1227 SU (33%; -9.7% ROI) and 919-907 RL (-6.2% ROI) since 2019. Since 2011, MLB divisional home favorites coming off a win are 856-533 SU (61.6%; +1% ROI) in the opening game of a series, including 220-108 SU (67.1%; +7.4% ROI) and 157-171 RL (+4.6% ROI) since 2020. These teams have won by an average margin of +1.52 runs per game in that span.
Finally, the Yankees are 218-151 SU (59.1%; +1.4% ROI) and 191-176 RL (+1.3% ROI) in the opening game of a series since 2016, winning by an average margin of +0.87 runs per game.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves (-200)
Report: Since 2008, large favorites of -210 or more are 1862-648 (74.2%; +4.3% ROI) straight-up and 1453-1051 (58%; +4.5% ROI) against the run line in games with a total of eight or more runs, including 1265-407 (75.7%; +5.8% ROI) straight-up and 997-676 (59.6%; +4.8% ROI) against the run line since 2016. Since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are just 2615-4640 SU (36%; -4.2% ROI) and 3717-3119 RL (-2.3% ROI) versus .551 or greater opposition, including 603-1227 SU (33%; -9.7% ROI) and 919-907 RL (-6.2% ROI) since 2019.
The above-referenced system contains 2282-4072 SU (35.9%; -4.4% ROI) and 802-1965 SU (29%; -10.9% ROI) subset angles that have also been extremely profitable on the run line. Finally, the Dodgers are 25-53 SU (32.1%; -27.5% ROI) and 37-41 RL (-25.9% ROI) as road underdogs since 2015, including 6-14 SU (30%; -34.8% ROI) and 8-12 RL (-38.7% ROI) since 2019 (3-11 L/14).
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