Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report – 5/22

May 22, 2023

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Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report!  Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Monday’s games.  Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!

Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers (-3) (-110)

Report: Since 2003, NBA playoff favorites off a loss are 453-189 SU (70.6%) and 353-279-10 ATS (55.9%) in Game 2 (or beyond) of a series, including 84-40 SU (67.7%) and 71-52-1 ATS (57.7%) since 2019. Since 2003, NBA playoff teams coming off a win as underdogs of four or more points are 88-186 SU (32.1%) and 107-165-2 ATS (39.3%) versus the same team. Since 2003, playoff home teams that played at home in their previous game and did not cover the spread are 165-132-5 ATS (55.6%) versus the same opponent, including 40-19 SU (67.8%) and 38-21 ATS (64.4%) since 2019, covering by an average of +4.7 points per game.

Since the 2002-2003 season, in Games 2-5 in the NBA playoffs, favorites off an outright loss as a favorite have gone 153-112-6 (57.7%) ATS. Since 2003, NBA Conference Finals teams off back-to-back losses are 37-24 ATS (60.7%), covering by an average of +2.94 points per game. Finally, NBA Conference Finals teams trailing a series 3-0 are a 62.5% ATS winning proposition since May 25, 2003, including a perfect 2-0 ATS since May 23, 2017.

Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers OVER 224.5 points

Report: Since 2011, NBA Conference Finals or NBA Finals games in which the total is greater than the total in the previous game are 35-18-1 (66%) to the Over, covering the total by an average margin of +4.6 points per game. This situation is 24-7-1 (77.4%) to the Over since 2016, covering the total by an average of +6.8 points per game in that span. Conference Finals Game 4 teams that are facing elimination have allowed an average of 118 points per game in their last five contests. Conference Finals teams seeded #3 or worse have allowed an average of 116.4 points per game in their last nine contests when facing elimination.

In the last ten Conference Finals games in which a team had the chance to close out a series, the Over is 9-1 (90%), producing 223.5 points per game on totals averaging 212.3 points. Finally, NBA Conference Finals teams trailing a series 3-0 are 7-1-1 (87.5%) to the Over, covering the total by an average margin of +11.06 points per game.

Carolina Hurricanes at Florida Panthers (-115)

Report: Florida goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky is 9-2 in the playoffs with a .927 save percentage, a 2.43 goals-against average, and a 13.8 goals saved above expected. Carolina goaltender Frederick Andersen is 5-1 in the playoffs with a .937 save percentage and 5.3 goals saved above expected. After missing nearly a month due to an injury, backup Antti Raanta started Game 2 and is 3-3 with a .906 save percentage and 0.4 goals saved above expected.

Florida’s Last Ten Games: 9-1-0, averaging 3.4 goals, 5.7 assists, 4.4 penalties and 9.8 penalty minutes while giving up 2.4 goals per game.

Carolina’s Last Ten Games: 6-2-2, averaging 3.6 goals, 5.4 assists, 3.3 penalties and 6.9 penalty minutes while giving up 2.4 goals per game.

Since 2000, NHL favorites averaging three or more goals allowed per game are 415-276 (60.1%) following two or more consecutive games in which they allowed two or fewer goals, including 101-52 (66%) since 2021, winning by an average of +0.85 goals per game in that span. Since 2007, NHL favorites of less than -200 coming off a win that went under the total are 527-386 (57.7%) versus .501 or greater opposition with revenge, including 64-33 (66%) since 2021, winning by an average margin of +0.63 goals per game.

St. Louis Cardinals (-191) at Cincinnati Reds

Report: Since 2007, MLB divisional underdogs are just 352-736 SU (32.4%; -11.7% ROI) and 490-594 RL (-8.2% ROI), losing by an average margin of -1.92 runs per game.  St. Louis is 31-11 SU (73.8%; +22.7% ROI) and 28-14 RL (66.7%; +31.5% ROI) since August 10, 2021, as road favorites following a game in which their starter allowed two or more runs, winning by an average of +2.62 runs per game.

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