Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report – 5/2

May 2, 2023

betting market report, daily betting market report, free betting market report

Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report!  Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Tuesday’s games.  Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!

Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins (-130)

Note: Miami starter Sandy Alcantara is 13-4 (76.5%; +38.4% ROI) since August 28, 2021, following an outing in which he allowed five hits or less.  The Marlins have won these starts by an average margin of +0.82 runs per game over that span.  Professional bettors have also moved a substantial amount of money on the Marlins in this game.

Atlanta starter Bryce Elder ranks in the bottom six percent of all qualified pitchers in average exit velocity allowed and hard-hit.  However, the Braves lead the majors in barrel rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.  In 152 at-bats against Alcantara, the Braves have hit .270 and slugged .447 with an average exit velocity of 90.1 mph.

Seattle Mariners (-140) at Oakland Athletics

Note: Since 2006, MLB road favorites priced between -140 and -190 are 657-380 (63.4%; +4.4% ROI) straight-up and 503-459 (+7.4% ROI) against the run line in the first two months of the regular season, including 212-96 (68.8%; +12.5% ROI) straight-up and 176-132 (+15.2% ROI) against the run line since 2019.  However, overnight (i.e., professional) money came in on Oakland and there hasn’t been a buyback as of Tuesday afternoon.

Through the month of April, MLB underdogs are 161-264 (37.9%) this season. A $100 bettor would be down $5,329 for a minus-12.5% return on investment.  Through April, underdogs of +200 or higher in MLB are 7-32 (17.9%).  Over the last two seasons – 2022 and 2023 – large underdogs (+200 or higher) are 9-43 (17.3%) in the month of April, losing by 3.25 runs per game.

San Francisco Giants at Houston Astros (-180)

Note: San Francisco falls into a very negative 2602-4615 (36.1%; -4.1% ROI) straight-up and -2.2% ROI run line system of mine that invests against road underdogs of +130 or greater versus .551 or greater opposition. This situation is 589-1201 (32.9%; -9.6% ROI) straight-up and -6.1% ROI against the run line since 2019.  Professional bettors have also moved a decent amount of money on the Astros in this game.

Arizona Diamondbacks (-145) at Texas Rangers

Note: Arizona is 18-0 straight-up and 14-4 (77.8%; +78.1% ROI) against the run line since September 1, 2020, as favorites of less than -170 in the first game of a series, winning by an average margin of +3.33 runs per game.  Texas is 69-115 (37.5%; -20.2% ROI) straight-up and 87-97 (-9.3% ROI) against the run line since 2019 following back-to-back games in which they did not commit an error.

Minnesota Twins (-165) at Chicago White Sox

Note: Since 2014, road favorites with starting pitchers with revenge are 769-525 (59.4%; +2.7% ROI) straight-up versus teams that defeated them in their previous matchup, including 197-123 (61.6%; +4.4% ROI) straight-up and 163-157 (+6.2% ROI) against the run line since 2021.  These teams improve to 386-265 (59.3%; +2.7% ROI) straight-up versus divisional opponents, including 107-59 (64.5%; +8.8% ROI) straight-up and 91-75 (+15.4% ROI) against the run line since 2021.  However, professional bettors moved on the White Sox earlier today at a decent underdog price.

Seattle Kraken at Dallas Stars (-180)

Note: Since 2013, NHL underdogs or home favorites coming off a win or close loss as road underdogs are 1102-809 (57.7%), including 370-231 (61.6%) since 2020.  These teams are 179-135 (57%) in the playoffs since 2007, winning by an average margin of +0.35 goals per game.  At 5-on-5, Dallas ranks fifth in the league with a 52.62 xGF% and third in power play, scoring 41% of the time.

The Stars also rank second with a 2.28 xGA/60 and a fourth-best penalty kill at 82%.  Dallas goaltender Jake Oettinger boasts a .929 SV% and a +4.3 GSAx in six playoff appearances.

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