Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Tuesday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets (-6)
Report: Of the 38 games in the last eight conference finals seasons with totals of 216.5 or higher, 25 of them have gone Under the total (65.8%). The under applies to a very good 211-146-10 (59.1%) NBA totals system of mine that invests on the under in certain games with teams coming off a win by 20 or more points. However, home teams in Game 1 after winning a series that went six or more games have gone 29-11 to the Over since the 2009-10 season
Entering the Western Conference Finals, Los Angeles has the league’s best Defensive Rating (106.5) in the playoffs, while the Nuggets have the No. 1 Offensive Rating (118.7), per NBA Advanced Stats. During the regular season, the Lakers were sixth in points in the paint while Denver was just 21st in points in the paint allowed.
The Nuggets boast a league-leading 54.1% rebounding rate, per NBA Advanced Stats, and ranked first in rebounds allowed in the regular season and the playoffs. Denver is a profitable 40-7 SU and 30-16-1 ATS at home this season, including 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the playoffs.
Cleveland Guardians (-125) at Chicago White Sox
Report: Since 2000, MLB home underdogs coming off a game in which they had eleven or fewer hits are just 1699-2317 SU (42.3%; -4.6% ROI) and 2041-1621 RL (-1.9% ROI) with a total between 7 and 8 runs, including 343-500 SU (40.7%; -5.8% ROI) and 461-382 RL (-3.1% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average margin of -1.04 runs per game. Chicago applies to a very negative 1188-1705 SU (41.1%; -6.8% ROI) and 1524-1361 RL (-6.6% ROI) system of mine that dates to 2009 and invests against certain home underdogs coming off a game that went under the total. This situation is 249-382 SU (39.5%; -7% ROI) and 327-304 RL (-7% ROI) since 2020, losing by an average margin of -1.26 runs per game over that span.
Finally, Cleveland starter Shane Bieber is 10-1 SU (90.9%; +45.6% ROI) and 9-2 RL (81.8%; +55% ROI) following an outing in which he allowed no runs, winning by an average margin of +2.64 runs per game.
Chicago Cubs at Houston Astros (-165)
Report: Since 2000, MLB home favorites with starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.30 or better are 1113-576 SU (65.9%; +4.6% ROI) and 688-850 RL (+1% ROI) versus starting pitchers whose ERA is 3.50 or less, winning by an average margin of +1.11 runs per game. Since 2016, MLB favorites of -140 or greater coming off a game as home favorites are 127-60 SU (67.9%; +5% ROI) in game 2 of a series with starting pitchers off a win in their previous outing, winning by an average margin of +1.66 runs per game. This situation is 48-16 SU (75%; +14.6% ROI) and 39-25 RL (60.9%; +27% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average of +2.73 runs per game.
Finally, Houston starter Cristian Javier is 25-12 SU (67.6%; +13.2% ROI) since August 4, 2020, following an outing in which he averaged 3.9 or more pitches per batter, winning by an average margin of +1.22 runs per game.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-145) at Oakland Athletics
Report: Oakland applies to a very negative 1188-1705 SU (41.1%; -6.8% ROI) and 1524-1361 RL (-6.6% ROI) system of mine that dates to 2009 and invests against certain home underdogs coming off a game that went under the total. This situation is 249-382 SU (39.5%; -7% ROI) and 327-304 RL (-7% ROI) since 2020, losing by an average margin of -1.26 runs per game over that span. Since 2008, American League home underdogs coming off back-to-back losses as underdogs are just 291-484 SU (37.5%; -10.4% ROI) and 388-385 RL (-7.8% ROI) if their last defeat was at home.
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