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Los Angeles Angels (-130) at Baltimore Orioles
Report: Baltimore applies to a very negative 1188-1704 SU (41.1%; -6.8% ROI) and 1524-1360 RL (-6.6% ROI) system of mine that dates to 2009 and invests against certain home underdogs coming off a game that went under the total. This situation is 249-381 SU (39.5%; -6.8% ROI) and 327-303 RL (-6.8% ROI) since 2020, losing by an average margin of -1.25 runs per game over that span. Since 2000, MLB home underdogs coming off a game in which they had eleven or fewer hits are just 1699-2316 SU (42.3%; -4.6% ROI) and 2041-1620 RL (-1.9% ROI) with a total between 7 and 8 runs, including 343-499 SU (40.7%; -5.7% ROI) and 461-381 RL (-3% ROI) since 2020, losing by an average margin of -1.04 runs per game.
Finally, since 2019, MLB home underdogs coming off a shutout loss at home are 75-117 SU (39.1%; -7.3% ROI) and 97-95 RL (-8% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.15 runs per game.
New York Mets (-151) at Washington Nationals
Report: Since 2016, MLB divisional road favorites coming off a road game are 660-441 SU (59.9%; +3% ROI) before the All-Star break, winning by an average of +1.07 runs per game. This situation is 264-173 SU (60.4%; +2.2% ROI) since 2020 with a +1.09 runs per game margin of victory. Since 2006, MLB road favorites priced between -140 and -190 are 668-393 SU (63%; +3.7% ROI) and 513-473 RL (+6.8% ROI) in league play during the first two months of the season, including 223-109 SU (67.2%; +9.7% ROI) and 186-146 RL (+12.8% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +1.97 runs per game.
Since 2013, Washington starter Patrick Corbin is 9-29 SU (23.7%; -44.8% ROI) and 17-21 RL (-17.6% ROI) as a home underdog, losing by an average margin of -2.55 runs per game. Corbin is 9-32 SU (22%; -43.9% ROI) and 18-23 RL (-19.9% ROI) since June 6, 2019, as an underdog coming off a loss in his previous start, losing by an average margin of -2.78 runs per game.
New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays (ML)
Report: New York falls into a very negative 2609-4629 (36%; -4.2% ROI) straight-up and 3709-3110 (-2.2% ROI) run line system of mine that dates to 2006 and invests against road underdogs of +130 or greater versus .551 or greater opposition. This situation is 597-1216 (32.9%; -9.7% ROI) straight-up and 911-898 (-6.1% ROI) against the run line since 2019, losing by an average margin of -1.46 runs per game. Since 2011, MLB teams on a three-game winning streak are 665-535 SU (55.4%; +5% ROI) and 638-557 RL (+5.1% ROI), winning by an average margin of +0.51 runs per game. This situation is 138-94 SU (59.5%; +12% ROI) and 131-101 RL (56.5%; +9.8% ROI) since 2021 with a +0.78 runs per game margin of victory.
However, New York is 216-151 SU (58.9%; +1% ROI) and 189-176 RL (+1% ROI) in the first game of a series since 2016, winning by an average margin of +0.86 runs per game. The Yankees also fall into a profitable 119-69 (63.3%; +6.4% ROI) run line system that invests on certain divisional road underdogs priced between +140 and +160 coming off a loss in games played before the month of June.
Seattle Kraken at Dallas Stars (-203)
Report: Seattle goaltender Philipp Grubauer has a 3.78 GAA and an .865 save percentage in the second round of the playoffs after posting a 2.85 GAA and an .895 save percentage in 39 regular season appearances. Dallas goaltender Jake Oettinger has a 3.98 GAA and an .865 save percentage this series. The play in this game could be on the total as the under falls into a very good 147-93 (61.2%) NHL totals system of mine that invests on the under in certain playoff games with home favorites of -170 or greater.
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