Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Friday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
New York Knicks at Miami Heat (-5.5) (-110)
Note: Since 2000, NBA playoff favorites coming off a loss are 451-186 SU (70.8%) and 352-275-10 ATS (56.1%), winning by an average margin of +6.6 points per game. This situation is 82-37 SU (68.9%) and 70-48-1 ATS (59.3%) since 2019, winning by an average of +7.36 points per game. Since 2003, NBA playoff home favorites coming off a loss are 312-243 ATS (56.2%), winning by an average margin of +7.38 points per game.
The Knicks have been without Immanuel Quickley for the past two games and he’s listed as Doubtful (ankle) for Game 6. The Knicks have an eFG% of just 51.2% in this series, a significant downturn from their full-season mark of 54.3%. Miami has an eFG% of just 50.3% in this series and has shot just 31.2% from beyond the arc.
For those interested in betting the total, since 2009, playoff home favorites coming off a loss are 210-161-7 (56.6%) to the Under, covering the total by an average of 2.68 points per game. This situation is 50-36 (58.1%) to the Under since 2020.
Edmonton Oilers (-130) at Vegas Golden Knights
Note: Since 2000, Pacific Division home underdogs are just 332-474 (41.2%; -7.2% ROI), including 65-127 (33.9%; -23.3% ROI) since 2019. These teams are 23-43 (34.8%; -21.1% ROI) in the playoffs over the last 23 years, losing by an average margin of -0.83 goals per game. Since 2010, road favorites priced from -120 and -200 from Game 50 out are 476-267 (64.1%; +7.8% ROI), winning by an average margin of +0.63 goals per game. These teams are 79-52 (60.3%; +2.2% ROI) in the playoffs, including 14-7 (66.7%; +12.6% ROI) since 2021, winning by an average of +1.0 goals per game.
Vegas defenseman Alex Pietrangelo’s has been suspended for Game 5. Pietrangelo was assessed a five-minute major and a game misconduct after his two-handed slash at Leon Draisaitl with 1:27 left in the third period of Game 4. Draisaitl is the leading scorer in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Pietrangelo leads the team in ice-time and is desperately needed to help neutralize both Draisaitl and Connor McDavid.
Edmonton defenseman Darnell Nurse was also suspended for Game 5 as a result of an instigator penalty he was given in the final minute of regulation in Wednesday’s affair. Finally, since 2007, NHL road favorites of -175 or less coming off a win that went under the total are 114-51 (69.1%; +21.1% ROI) in games with a total of six or more goals versus teams coming off an under, winning by an average margin of +0.82 goals per game.
Philadelphia Phillies (-140) at Colorado Rockies
Note: Since 2006, MLB road favorites priced between -140 and -190 are 665-390 SU (63%; +3.8% ROI) and 510-470 RL (+6.9% ROI) in league play during the first two months of the season, including 220-106 SU (67.5%; +10.2% ROI) and 183-143 RL (+13.1% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +1.99 runs per game. Since 2011, MLB teams off three consecutive wins are 664-535 SU (55.4%; +5% ROI) and 637-557 RL (+5.1% ROI) in the first game of a series, including 137-94 SU (59.3%; +11.7% ROI) and 130-101 RL (+9.5% ROI) since 2021.
Finally, Colorado applies to a very negative 1185-1701 SU (41.1%; -6.8% ROI) and 1520-1358 RL (-6.7% ROI) system of mine that dates to 2009 and invests against certain home underdogs coming off a game that went under the total. This situation is 246-378 SU (39.4%; -7.1% ROI) and 323-301 RL (-7% ROI) since 2020, losing by an average margin of -1.26 runs per game over thar span.
San Francisco Giants (-112) at Arizona Diamondbacks
Note: Since 2016, divisional road favorites coming off a road affair are 657-438 SU (60%; +3.1% ROI) in games before the All-Star break, including 261-170 SU (60.6%; +2.4% ROI) since 2020. These teams have won by an average margin of +1.1 runs per game over that span. Arizona applies to a very negative 1185-1701 SU (41.1%; -6.8% ROI) and 1520-1358 RL (-6.7% ROI) system of mine that dates to 2009 and invests against certain home underdogs coming off a game that went under the total. This situation is 246-378 SU (39.4%; -7.1% ROI) and 323-301 RL (-7% ROI) since 2020, losing by an average margin of -1.26 runs per game over thar span.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Baltimore Orioles (-155)
Note: Pittsburgh falls into a very negative 2608-4624 (36.1%; -4.1% ROI) straight-up and 3707-3106 (-2.2% ROI) run line system of mine that dates to 2006 and invests against road underdogs of +130 or greater versus .551 or greater opposition. This situation is 596-1211 (33%; -9.5% ROI) straight-up and 909-894 (-5.9% ROI) against the run line since 2019, losing by an average margin of -1.46 runs per game.
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