Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Thursday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns (-3) (-110)
Note: Since 2000, NBA playoff underdogs of two or more points coming off a win that went under the total are just 103-280 SU (26.9%) and 159-219-5 ATS (42.1%), losing by an average of 7.33 points per game. Since 2003, NBA playoff home favorites coming off a loss are 408-154 SU (72.6%) and 312-243-7 ATS (56.2%), winning by an average margin of +7.44 points per game.
However, NBA playoff teams with a winning percentage between .450 and .550 are 14-74 SU (15.9%) and 18-42 ATS (30%) when trailing in a series since 2017, losing by an average of 9.0 points per game. Denver posted a 125.0 Offensive Rating, a 58.6% Effective Field Goal Percentage, and an elite 9.8% Turnover Rate in Game 5. Nikola Jokic finished with 29 points, 13 rebounds, and 12 assists on 60% shooting from the field in Game 5.
New Jersey Devils at Carolina Hurricanes (-130)
Note: Carolina has won three of the first four games in this series with a +10 goal differential. New Jersey will likely go with goaltender Akira Schmid in Game 5 after Vitek Vanecek allowed five goals on just 17 shots (.706 SV%) before getting pulled in Game 4. However, Schmid is 0-2 with a terrible .830 SV% and 5.40 goals against average (GAA) in three appearances.
Carolina goaltender Frederik Andersen is 4-0 with an elite .930 SV% and 1.80 GAA across five starts this postseason. Andersen is 10-2 with a .930 SV% and 2.10 GAA in thirteen career starts against the Devils. Since late December, Carolina leads the league in both expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). Over that same period, the Devils ranks fifth and ninth, respectively, in those statistical categories.
Since 2010, NHL home favorites are 538-337 (61.5%) versus teams entering off a blowout loss of four or more goals, including 63-32 (66.3%) since 2022. NHL teams that have allowed three-plus goals in two or more consecutive games are 42-60 (41.2%; -4.4% ROI) versus teams that have scored four-plus goals in four or more consecutive games since 2020.
Texas Rangers (-215) at Oakland Athletics
Note: Since 2006, MLB road favorites priced between -140 and -190 are 665-390 SU (63%; +3.8% ROI) and 510-470 RL (+6.9% ROI) in the first two months of the regular season versus league opponents, including 220-106 SU (67.5%; +10.2% ROI) and 183-143 RL (+13.1% ROI) since 2019. MLB road teams with starting pitchers who lasted eight or more innings in their previous outing are 89-157 SU (36.2%; -21.4% ROI) and 117-129 RL (-14.1% ROI) since August 31, 2016, following a game as underdogs.
Finally, Texas starter Nathan Eovaldi is 2-2 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in nine career outings against the Athletics, including allowing just four combined in runs in his last seventeen innings (3 starts).
New York Mets (190) at Cincinnati Reds
Note: Since 2006, large MLB road favorites are 624-250 SU (71.4%; +3.5% ROI) and 496-331 RL (60%; +4.2% ROI), winning by an average margin of +2.37 runs per game. Since 2017, MLB road favorites coming off a game in which they had three or more walks and went under the total are 846-593 SU (58.8%; +1.7% ROI) and 716-723 RL (+1.5% ROI), winning by an average margin of +1.19 runs per game.
Finally, the Mets are 281-182 SU (60.2%; +0.5% ROI) since July 10, 2014, as favorites with a starting pitcher who lasted six or fewer innings in his previous outing, including 88-54 SU (62%) since 2021.
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