Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report – 5/10

May 10, 2023

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Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report!  Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Wednesday’s games.  Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!

Miami Heat at New York Knicks UNDER 209.5 points 

Note: The Under falls into profitable 958-730-68 (56.8%) and 510-330-35 (60.7%) NBA totals systems of mine that date to 2000 and invest on the under in certain games with a posted total of less than 223 points.  Since 2009, playoff home favorites coming off a loss are 209-159-7 (56.8%) to the Under, including 49-34 (59%) to the Under since 2020, covering the total by an average of 2.94 points per game.

New York is averaging under 100 points per game through the first four games, shooting 43.6% from the field and 28.2% from beyond the arc. The Knicks are the only remaining team left in the playoffs that is averaging less than 100 points per game. Julius Randle is dealing with an ankle injury but is averaging 18.3 points (43.5% FG%; 22.2% 3-PT%) and 11.7 rebounds per game against the Heat.  Miami is averaging just 106.8 points per game in this series.

Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers (-180)

Note: Since 2011, NHL favorites of -145 or greater with less than five days of rest are 259-125 (67.4%; +3.5% ROI) following a loss by more than three goals, including 87-38 (69.6%; +4.7% ROI) since 2020 (7-0 L/7).  Since 2007, NHL home favorites of -150 or greater coming off a home game are 72-34 (67.9%; +2.8% ROI) in May affairs, including 35-15 (70%; +3.2% ROI) since 2019.  Since 1996, .600 to .700 NHL road teams that have won 8 or more of their last ten games are 52-95 (35.4%) versus teams with a .600 to .700 winning percentage, including 6-28 (17.6%) over the last five seasons and 1-6 (14.3%) this season.

Toronto Maple Leafs (-115) at Florida Panthers

Note: Since 2000, NHL underdogs coming off three or more consecutive wins are 786-1267 (38.3%; -11.4% ROI), including 99-193 (33.9%) since 2020, losing by an average of -0.96 goals per game and costing bettors a -19.4% return on investment. Since 2000, NHL teams priced between -105 and +220 coming off four to seven consecutive wins are 819-1306 (38.5%; -11.7% ROI), including 111-204 (35.2%; -17.9%) since 2020.

However, since April 26, the Panthers have won six straight games, scoring 25 goals in that span.  Florida is 5-for-13 on the power play and the home team is 16-7 (69.6%; +18.1% ROI) at home in this series.  Florida goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky owns a .909 save percentage, a 3.13 goals-against average, and is at 6.0 goals saved above expected – best among the goalies remaining in the playoffs.

Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves (-155)

Note: Boston falls into a very negative 2607-4624 (36.1%; -4.1% ROI) straight-up and -2.2% ROI run line system of mine that dates to 2006 and invests against road underdogs of +130 or greater versus .551 or greater opposition. This situation is 595-1211 (32.9%; -9.6% ROI) straight-up and -6.0% ROI against the run line since 2019, losing by an average margin of -1.47 runs per game.  Since 2008, MLB road teams off back-to-back losses by two or more runs are 671-911 SU (42.4%; -4.9% ROI) and 854-725 RL (-2.3% ROI) in the last game of a series.

The Braves are 58-22 SU (72.5%; +12.8% ROI) and 38-41 RL (+1.3% ROI) since June 1, 2019, as home favorites of greater than -130 versus teams with a worse winning percentage, winning by an average of margin of +2.33 runs per game.

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