Oskeim Sports’ College Football Betting Preview – 9/9

Sep 8, 2023

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Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ College Football Betting preview!  Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Saturday’s games.  Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!

Wisconsin at Washington State (+6) (-110)

Report: Wisconsin offensive coordinator Phil Longo brought his Air Raid system from North Carolina to Madison during the offseason and growing pains are expected for an offense that averaged just 25 pass attempts per game (bottom 10 of FBS) in 2022. First-year head coach Luke Fickell brought in quarterback Tanner Mordecai from SMU to run the Air-Raid-type attack and is surrounded by solid weapons, including top returning receiver Chimere Dike, who averaged 8.8 yards per target with a 55% success rate last season.

Wisconsin arrives off a disappointing 38-17 win over Buffalo in which Mordecai averaged just 5.8 yards per pass play against a really bad Bulls’ defense. Washington State enters off an impressive 50-24 road win over Colorado State. Quarterback Cameron Ward averaged 12.2 yards per completion during his tenure at Incarnate Word and completed 37 of 49 passes for 451 yards against the Rams.

Since 1999, college football non-conference home underdogs of +5 to +8.5 points in their first four games of the season are 51-23-2 ATS (68.9%) following a season in which they won between 4 and 8 games, including 8-2-1 ATS (80%) since September 14, 2019. Wisconsin is 9-3 SU and ATS (75%) when playing with revenge since 2016 but college football teams looking to avenge outright losses in which they were double-digit favorites are just 83-106 ATS (43.9%) in that span.  My math model only favors Wisconsin by 4.6 points in this game and the Cougars are 5-2 ATS as home underdogs over the past two seasons.

North Texas at Florida International (+12.5) (-110)

Report: Florida International head coach Mike MacIntyre consistently outperforms expectations and has 85 scholarships on the roster for his second season in Miami. The Panthers’ ground attack looked very good in its season-opening 22-17 loss at Louisiana Tech, finishing with 178 yards at 5.9 yards per pass attempt. South Dakota transfer Shomari Lawrence led the team with 139 yards on 15 carries (9.3 yards per carry) and is an integral component to the Panthers’ offense after losing projected starting running back Lexington Joseph to a season-ending knee injury in the spring.

New Offensive Line coach Joshua Eargle deserves a lot of credit as the Panthers had 2.43 Offensive Line Yards and 14% of their rushes went for ten-plus yards against Louisiana Tech in Week 0. Florida International enters off a misleading 14-12 win over Maine in which it committed three turnovers and lost 18.0 points to Turnover Luck. Florida International outgained Maine 5.6 yards per play to 4.4 yards per play, finished with more explosive plays and quarterback Keyone Jenkins threw for 292 yards at 9.7 yards per pass attempt.

The Panthers’ offense will continue to improve against a porous North Texas stop unit that allowed 58 points and 669 total yards at 7.7 yards per play against California last week. Lawrence is primed for a productive outing against a North Texas front seven that yielded 347 rushing yards at 6.2 yards per attempt last week. Over 16% of California’s offensive plays graded as explosive; FIU offensive coordinator David Yost must be yearning to get his unit on the field against the Mean Green’s subpar defense.

Finally, my math model favors North Texas by less than a touchdown and MacIntyre is 14-5-1 ATS as an underdog in his coaching career. With North Texas standing at just 7-36 straight-up in road openers, grab the points with the Panthers and invest with confidence.

College Football Betting Trends for Saturday, September 9

  • Since 2005, college football road favorites of more than three points that won their first two games of the season are just 21-38-1 ATS (35.6%) in their third game
  • Since 1990, college football underdogs of less than eight points are 48-29-2 ATS (62.3%) in game 2 of the season following a loss by seven points or fewer, covering the spread by an average of +2.89 points per game. These underdogs have been even better since 2015, going 13-9 SU and 15-6-1 ATS (71.4%)
  • Colorado is 13-4 ATS against Nebraska since 1996 but the Cornhuskers are 6-1 ATS as road underdogs since the start of the 2021 season
  • Since 2007, Nebraska is 25-11-1 ATS (69.4%) away from home off a game in which they had a time of possession of 18 minutes or less, including 7-2 ATS (77.8%) since November 7, 2020.  However, the Cornhuskers are 2-14 since 2021 in one-score games
  • New Mexico State is 65-96-2 ATS (40.4%) as underdogs since 2005, making the Aggies the least profitable underdog in the FBS over that span.  The Aggies are an even worse 13-33 ATS (28.3%) when traveling outside of their time zone.
  • Texas Tech is 56-42-2 ATS (57.1%) at home since 2005, including 19-8-2 ATS (70.4%) versus non-conference opponents

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