Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report – 8/8

Aug 8, 2023

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Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report!  Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Tuesday’s games.  Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!

Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers (-215)

Report: Since 2006, MLB favorites of -201 or greater in games with totals of eight or more runs are 2285-862 SU (72.6%; +2.6% ROI) and 1678-1262 RL (57.1%; +3.3% ROI), including 1153-388 SU (74.8%; +4.7% ROI) and 912-630 RL (59.1%; +3.6% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +2.39 runs per game. Since 2003, large MLB home favorites that have the same (or better) record than their opponent over the last ten games are 2290-901 SU (71.8%; +1.9% ROI) and 1467-1207 RL (+2.5% ROI) from game 40 out, including 719-241 SU (74.9%; +4.7% ROI) and 549-411 RL (57.2%; +3.2% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +2.19 runs per game.

Since 2003, MLB road underdogs of +156 or greater coming off a road game in which they scored less than nine runs are 451-982 SU (31.5%; -9.8% ROI) and 571-618 RL (-8.3% ROI) with starting pitchers with an ERA of 3.81 or worse that are coming off back-to-back losses in their previous two outings, losing by an average of -1.68 runs per game. These teams are an even worse 86-251 SU (25.5%; -24.9% ROI) and 153-185 RL (45.2%; -10.5% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.97 runs per game.

Toronto Blue Jays (-125) at Cleveland Guardians

Report: Since 2006, MLB favorites coming off a game in which they used seven or more pitchers are 601-350 SU (63.2%; +5.7% ROI) and 441-475 RL (+6.5% ROI), including 220-117 SU (65.3%; +7.9% ROI) and 169-168 RL (+6.1% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +1.45 runs per game. Since 2005, MLB home underdogs with totals between 7-8 runs coming off a game as underdogs that went under the total in which they had 11 hits or less are 571-781 SU (42.1%; -3.8% ROI), including 168-274 SU (37.5%; -12.1% ROI) and 239-203 RL (-2.2% ROI) since 2018, losing by an average of -1.25 runs per game.

Finally, since 2009, MLB home underdogs coming off a game that went under the total in which both teams failed to score in the first inning are 1225-1755 SU (41.1%; -6.6% ROI) and 1571-1401 RL (-6.5% ROI), losing by an average of 1.1 runs per game.

Bonus MLB Betting Trends for Tuesday, August 8

  • Since 2006, MLB favorites of -201 or greater in games with totals of eight or more runs are 2285-862 SU (72.6%; +2.6% ROI) and 1678-1262 RL (57.1%; +3.3% ROI), including 1153-388 SU (74.8%; +4.7% ROI) and 912-630 RL (59.1%; +3.6% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +2.39 runs per game
  • Since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are 2655-4720 SU (36%; -4.3% ROI) and 3768-3188 RL (-2.6% ROI) versus .551 or greater opposition, including 813-1989 SU (29%; -10.8% ROI) and 1117-1302 RL (-6.9% ROI) as road underdogs of +175 or greater, losing by an average of -1.86 runs per game
  • Since 2005, MLB home underdogs with totals between 7-8 runs coming off a game as underdogs that went under the total in which they had 11 hits or less are 571-781 SU (42.1%; -3.8% ROI), including 168-274 SU (37.5%; -12.1% ROI) and 239-203 RL (-2.2% ROI) since 2018, losing by an average of -1.25 runs per game
  • The Tampa Bay Rays are 165-67 SU (71.1%; +8% ROI) and 115-116 RL (+1% ROI) as home favorites of -151 or greater since 2015, winning by an average of +1.67 runs per game
  • Since 2007, home underdogs coming off a loss are 2002-2840 SU (41.3%; -6.2% ROI) and 2574-2248 RL (-4.9% ROI) in games that start after 4 p.m. eastern time, including 523-837 SU (38.5%; -9.2% ROI) and 680-679 RL (-8.9% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.31 runs per game.

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