Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Friday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Kansas City Royals at Philadelphia Phillies (-260)
Report: Since 2006, MLB favorites of -201 or greater in games with totals of eight or more runs are 2280-858 SU (72.7%; +2.6% ROI) and 1673-1258 RL (57%; +3.3% ROI), including 1148-384 SU (74.9%; +4.9% ROI) and 907-626 RL (59.2%; +3.7% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +2.4 runs per game. Since 2005, MLB favorites of -191 or greater in the first game of a series are 1288-540 SU (70.5%; +1.4% ROI) and 914-737 RL (55.4%; +3.4% ROI), including 586-225 SU (72.3%; +3.1% ROI) and 468-341 RL (57.8%; +4.6% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average of +2.17 runs per game.
Finally, MLB favorites of -130 or greater coming off a win in which they scored 3-6 runs are 752-448 SU (62.7%) in the opening game of a series, winning by an average of +1.23 runs per game.
New York Mets at Baltimore Orioles (-165)
Report: Since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are 2655-4719 SU (36%; -4.3% ROI) and 3768-3187 RL (-2.6% ROI) versus .551 or greater opposition, losing by an average of -1.15 runs per game. Since 2003, .490 or worse road underdogs of +142 or greater coming off two or more consecutive losses are 1172-2377 SU (33%; -8.6% ROI) and 1541-1402 RL (-3% ROI), losing by an average margin of -1.51 runs per game. MLB favorites of -130 or greater coming off a win in which they scored 3-6 runs are 752-448 SU (62.7%) in the opening game of a series, winning by an average of +1.23 runs per game.
Finally, MLB home favorites of -156 to -210 with revenge in the first game of a series are 792-407 SU (66.1%; +3.1% ROI) and 516-545 RL (+5.7% ROI), winning by an average of +1.46 runs per game. Take Baltimore as Jeff Keim’s Free Pick Winner for Friday, August 4.
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians (-160)
Report: Since 2009, divisional home favorites of greater than -150 coming off a loss are 1168-594 SU (66.3%; +1.5% ROI) and 861-899 RL (+3.1% ROI), including 272-115 SU (70.3%; +5.8% ROI) and 212-175 RL (+10.5% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average margin of +1.84 runs per game. Since 2006, .499 or worse divisional road underdogs are 952-1377 SU (40.9%; -4.9% ROI) and 1280-893 RL (-3.6% ROI) versus teams with a losing record, including 194-318 SU (37.9%; -11.3% ROI) and 289-223 RL (-5.6% ROI) since 2019.
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox (-157)
Report: Since 2006, MLB home favorites coming off a non-divisional game in which they had less than 9 hits are 390-244 SU (61.5%; +5% ROI) versus teams off a game as home favorites, including 81-33 SU (71.1%; +18.7% ROI) and 60-54 RL (+21.6% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average of +1.56 runs per game. Since 2009, divisional home favorites of greater than -150 coming off a loss are 1168-594 SU (66.3%; +1.5% ROI) and 861-899 RL (+3.1% ROI), including 272-115 SU (70.3%; +5.8% ROI) and 212-175 RL (+10.5% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average margin of +1.84 runs per game.
Tampa Bay Rays (-145) at Detroit Tigers
Report: Since 2005, non-divisional road favorites with rest versus unrested teams in game 1 of a series are 550-341 SU (61.7%; +6.9% ROI) and 400-390 RL (+9.6% ROI), including 198-87 SU (69.5%; +16.3% ROI) and 166-119 RL (58.2%; +21.1% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +1.97 runs per game. Since 2005, non-divisional home underdogs versus rested teams coming off a loss are 61-124 SU (33%; -26.2% ROI) and 79-88 RL (-16.1% ROI) after the All-Star break, losing by an average of -1.71 runs per game.
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