Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report – 8/20

Aug 20, 2023

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Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report!  Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Sunday’s games.  Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!

Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros (-180)

Report: Since 2009, divisional home favorites of greater than -150 coming off a loss are 1175-596 SU (66.3%; +1.6% ROI) and 867-902 RL (+3.3% ROI), including 279-117 SU (70.5%; +6.1% ROI) and 218-178 RL (55.1%; +11.2% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average margin of +1.87 runs per game. Since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are 2661-4742 SU (35.9%; -4.5% ROI) and 3778-3206 RL (-2.7% ROI) versus .551 or greater opposition, losing by an average margin of -1.16 runs per game.

Finally, since 2003, MLB home favorites of greater than -160 off back-to-back losses in game 3 of a series are 295-141 SU (67.7%; +2.4% ROI) and 181-177 RL (+4.2% ROI), including 86-35 SU (71.1%; +6.7% ROI) and 64-56 RL (+6.1% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average of +1.8 runs per game.

Kansas City Royals at Chicago Cubs (-205)

Report: Since 2003, large MLB home favorites that have the same (or better) record than their opponent over the last ten games are 2307-905 SU (71.8%; +2% ROI) and 1482-1213 RL (+2.8% ROI) from game 40 out, including 736-245 SU (75%; +4.9% ROI) and 564-417 RL (57.5%; +3.7% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +2.2 runs per game.  Since 2003, MLB road underdogs of +156 or greater coming off a road game in which they scored less than nine runs are 454-986 SU (31.5%; -9.7% ROI) and 574-622 RL (-8.3% ROI) with starting pitchers with an ERA of 3.81 or worse that are coming off back-to-back losses in their previous two outings, losing by an average of -1.69 runs per game.

The above teams are an even worse 89-255 SU (25.9%; -24.1% ROI) and 156-189 RL (45.2%; -10.5% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.97 runs per game.  Finally, since 2004, MLB underdogs in the last game of a series are 181-400 SU (31.2%; -11.3% ROI) and 224-239 RL (-7.8% ROI) versus starting pitchers with an ERA of 4.01 or worse, including 30-110 SU (21.4%; -38.4% ROI) and 56-84 RL (40%; -21.8% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -2.35 runs per game.

Milwaukee Brewers at Texas Rangers (-210)

Report: Since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are 2661-4742 SU (35.9%; -4.5% ROI) and 3778-3206 RL (-2.7% ROI) versus .551 or greater opposition, losing by an average margin of -1.16 runs per game. Since 2005, MLB favorites of -196 or greater with starting pitchers with a WHIP of 1.09 or better with revenge are 570-208 SU (73.3%; +5% ROI) and 409-307 RL (57.1%; +5.9% ROI), including 270-82 SU (76.7%; +8.5% ROI) and 207-145 RL (58.8%; +5.3% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average of +2.53 runs per game.

Finally, since 2003, MLB home favorites of greater than -160 off back-to-back losses in game 3 of a series are 295-141 SU (67.7%; +2.4% ROI) and 181-177 RL (+4.2% ROI), including 86-35 SU (71.1%; +6.7% ROI) and 64-56 RL (+6.1% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average of +1.8 runs per game.

Bonus Betting Trends for Sunday, August 20

  • Since 2017, AFC teams are 127-77 ATS (62.3%) versus NFC opponents in the NFL preseason, including 77-39 ATS (66.4%) since 2019 and 53-19 ATS (73.6%) since 2021
  • Since 2017, AFC teams are 42-17 ATS (71.2%) on the road versus NFC opponents in the NFL preseason
  • Since 2017, AFC preseason squads are 34-21 ATS (61.8%) at home and 40-26 ATS (60.6%) as favorites versus NFC teams
  • Since 2015, NFL preseason underdogs priced between +1 and +3 are 154-105 ATS (59.5%), including going 5-3 ATS last week
  • Since 2003, MLB home favorites with starting pitchers whose WHIP is 1.30 or better are 1145-593 SU (65.9%; +4.5% ROI) versus starting pitchers whose ERA is 3.50 or better during the months of May through August, winning by an average of +1.11 runs per game
  • Since 2003, large MLB home favorites that have the same (or better) record than their opponent over the last ten games are 2307-905 SU (71.8%; +2% ROI) and 1482-1213 RL (+2.8% ROI) from game 40 out, including 736-245 SU (75%; +4.9% ROI) and 564-417 RL (57.5%; +3.7% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +2.2 runs per game

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