Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report – 8/17

Aug 17, 2023

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Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report!  Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Thursday’s games.  Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!

Detroit Tigers (-120) at Cleveland Guardians

Report: Since 2009, MLB home underdogs coming off a game that went under the total in which both teams failed to score in the first inning are 1232-1765 SU (41.1%; -6.6% ROI) and 1582-1407 RL (-6.4% ROI), losing by an average margin of 1.1 runs per game. Since 2007, home underdogs coming off a loss are 2011-2848 SU (41.4%; -6.1% ROI) and 2587-2252 RL (-4.8% ROI) in games that start after 4 p.m. eastern time, including 532-845 SU (38.6%; -8.8% ROI) and 693-683 RL (-8.3% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.29 runs per game.

Since 2003, divisional home underdogs on Thursdays in the first game of a series are 73-132 SU (35.6%; -16.3% ROI) and 87-96 RL (-15.4% ROI), losing by an average of -1.55 runs per game.  Since 2014, MLB road favorites with a worse run differential than their opponent are 724-551 SU (56.8%; +2.4% ROI) and 576-698 RL (+1% ROI), including 280-192 SU (59.3%; +5.7% ROI) and 233-239 RL (+4.4% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average of +1.32 runs per game.

Finally, since 2004, MLB home underdogs of less than +148 in August affairs with totals of 8 to 8.5 runs are 153-248 SU (38.2%; -16% ROI) and 187-163 RL (-8.7% ROI), losing by an average of -1.2 runs per game.

Boston Red Sox (-180) at Washington Nationals

Report: Since 2010, American League road favorites priced between -120 and -220 are 1220-799 SU (60.4%; +2.4% ROI) and 957-1056 RL (+1.4% ROI) versus non-divisional opponents, winning by an average margin of +1.33 runs per game. Since 2011, August road favorites of -148 or greater in games with totals of ten runs or less are 449-217 SU (67.4%; +4.8% ROI) and 350-316 RL (+1% ROI), winning by an average of +1.77 runs per game. Since 2010, non-divisional home underdogs with totals of 8.5 or more runs are 398-581 SU (40.7%; -6.3% ROI) and 504-472 RL (-8% ROI) in afternoon affairs, losing by an average of -1.22 runs per game.

Since 2009, MLB home underdogs coming off a game that went under the total in which both teams failed to score in the first inning are 1232-1765 SU (41.1%; -6.6% ROI) and 1582-1407 RL (-6.4% ROI), losing by an average of 1.1 runs per game. Washington starter Patrick Corbin is 6-28 SU (17.6%; -46.3% ROI) and 12-22 RL (-35.3% ROI) since 2016 as an underdog of +156 or greater versus teams that had 76 or more regular season wins the previous season, losing by an average of -3.85 runs per game.

Corbin is 11-31 SU (26.2%; -37.7% ROI) and 19-23 RL (-17% ROI) as a home underdog since 2013, losing by an average of -2.17 runs per game.  Finally, Corbin is 13-35 SU (27.1%; -29.4% ROI) and 22-26 RL (-15.6% ROI) since June 6, 2019, as an underdog coming off a loss in his last outing, losing by an average of -2.31 runs per game.

Arizona Diamondbacks (-115) at San Diego Padres

Report: Since 2004, MLB home underdogs of less than +148 in August affairs with totals of 8 to 8.5 runs are 153-248 SU (38.2%; -16% ROI) and 187-163 RL (-8.7% ROI), losing by an average of -1.2 runs per game.  Since 2014, MLB road favorites with a worse run differential than their opponent are 724-551 SU (56.8%; +2.4% ROI) and 576-698 RL (+1% ROI), including 280-192 SU (59.3%; +5.7% ROI) and 233-239 RL (+4.4% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average of +1.32 runs per game.

Finally, since 2003, divisional home underdogs on Thursdays in the first game of a series are 73-132 SU (35.6%; -16.3% ROI) and 87-96 RL (-15.4% ROI), losing by an average of -1.55 runs per game.

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