Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report – 8/16

Aug 16, 2023

betting market report, free betting market report, daily betting market report

Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report!  Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Wednesday’s games.  Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!

Oakland Athletics at St. Louis Cardinals (-180)

Report: Since 2003, .490 or worse road underdogs of +142 or greater coming off two or more consecutive losses are 1178-2385 SU (33.1%; -8.5% ROI) and 1547-1410 RL (-3% ROI), losing by an average margin of -1.5 runs per game.  Since 2008, MLB road teams off back-to-back road losses by two or more runs are 688-955 SU (41.9%; -6.2% ROI) and 877-763 RL (-3.2% ROI) in the final game of a series, losing by an average of -0.45 runs per game.

St. Louis falls into a very good 320-158 SU (66.9%; +12.9% ROI) and 188-207 RL (+14.5% ROI) system of mine that dates to 2004 and invests on .489 or worse home favorites coming off back-to-back home wins in game 3 (or beyond) of a series versus teams with a losing record. These teams have won by an average margin of +1.23 runs per game.

Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins (-182)

Report: Since 2004, large home favorites with certain run differentials are 1486-616 SU (70.7%; +2.5% ROI) and 915-804 RL (+3.4% ROI), including 426-164 SU (72.2%; +4.4% ROI) and 326-261 RL (55.5%; +4.9% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average of +2.04 runs per game. Since 2003, .490 or worse road underdogs of +142 or greater coming off two or more consecutive losses are 1178-2385 SU (33.1%; -8.5% ROI) and 1547-1410 RL (-3% ROI), losing by an average margin of -1.5 runs per game.

Since 2008, MLB road teams off back-to-back road losses by two or more runs are 688-955 SU (41.9%; -6.2% ROI) and 877-763 RL (-3.2% ROI) in the final game of a series, losing by an average of -0.45 runs per game.  Finally, since 2008, divisional road teams off consecutive losses are 693-909 SU (43.3%; -5.2% ROI) and 832-767 RL (-5.1% ROI) in the final game of a series, including 181-271 SU (40%; -12.4% ROI) and 208-243 RL (46.1%; -13.6% ROI) since 2019.

New York Yankees at Atlanta Braves (-200)

Report: Since 2006, MLB favorites of -201 or greater in games with totals of eight or more runs are 2301-866 SU (72.7%; +2.6% ROI) and 1690-1270 RL (57.1%; +3.3% ROI), including 1169-392 SU (74.9%; +4.8% ROI) and 924-638 RL (59.2%; +3.6% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +2.4 runs per game. Since 2003, large MLB home favorites that have the same (or better) record than their opponent over the last ten games are 2302-905 SU (71.8%; +1.9% ROI) and 1477-1213 RL (+2.6% ROI) from game 40 out, including 731-245 SU (74.9%; +4.7% ROI) and 559-417 RL (57.3%; +3.4% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +2.19 runs per game.

Since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are 2659-4736 SU (36%; -4.4% ROI) and 3775-3201 RL (-2.7% ROI) versus .551 or greater opposition, including 813-1995 SU (29%; -10.9% ROI) and 1118-1307 RL (-7% ROI) as road underdogs of +175 or greater, losing by an average of -1.86 runs per game.  Finally, Atlanta applies to a very good 604-182 SU (76.8%; +7.7% ROI) and 459-327 RL (58.4%; +7.4% ROI) system of mine that invests on certain large home favorites after the month of July. This situation has won by an average margin of +2.39 runs per game and is 15-2 SU (88.2%; +22.6% ROI) and 13-4 RL (76.5%; +34.4% ROI) this season with a +3.18 runs per game margin.

Bonus MLB Betting Trends for Wednesday, August 16

  • Since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are 2659-4736 SU (36%; -4.4% ROI) and 3775-3201 RL (-2.7% ROI) versus .551 or greater opposition, losing by an average margin of -1.16 runs per game
  • Since 2003, large MLB home favorites that have the same (or better) record than their opponent over the last ten games are 2302-905 SU (71.8%; +1.9% ROI) and 1477-1213 RL (+2.6% ROI) from game 40 out, including 731-245 SU (74.9%; +4.7% ROI) and 559-417 RL (57.3%; +3.4% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +2.19 runs per game
  • The Los Angeles Angels are 8-72 SU (10%; -73.6% ROI) and 20-60 RL (25%; -53.8% ROI) since 2011 as underdogs of greater than +135 in game 2 (or beyond) of a series following a game as underdogs versus starting pitchers with a certain strikeout-to-walk ratio, losing by an average of -3.2 runs per game

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