Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Tuesday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Oakland Athletics at St. Louis Cardinals (-205)
Report: Since 2006, MLB favorites of -201 or greater in games with totals of eight or more runs are 2298-866 SU (72.6%; +2.6% ROI) and 1687-1270 RL (57.1%; +3.2% ROI), including 1166-392 SU (74.8%; +4.8% ROI) and 921-638 RL (59.1%; +3.5% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +2.4 runs per game. Since 2003, large MLB home favorites that have the same (or better) record than their opponent over the last ten games are 2299-905 SU (71.8%; +1.9% ROI) and 1474-1213 RL (+2.5% ROI) from game 40 out, including 728-245 SU (74.8%; +4.6% ROI) and 556-417 RL (57.1%; +3.1% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +2.18 runs per game.
The Athletics are 70-159 SU (30.6%; -10.6% ROI) and 107-122 RL (-6.5% ROI) since 2014 as underdogs of more than +160, losing by an average margin of -1.97 runs per game in that span. Finally, since 2003, .490 or worse road underdogs of +142 or greater off two or more consecutive losses are 1177-2384 SU (33.1%; -8.5% ROI) and 1546-1409 RL (-3% ROI), losing by an average margin of -1.5 runs per game.
New York Yankees at Atlanta Braves (-200)
Report: Since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are 2659-4733 SU (36%; -4.4% ROI) and 3775-3198 RL (-2.6% ROI) versus .551 or greater opposition, including 813-1993 SU (29%; -10.9% ROI) and 1118-1305 RL (-7% ROI) as road underdogs of +175 or greater, losing by an average of -1.86 runs per game. Since 2006, MLB favorites of -201 or greater in games with totals of eight or more runs are 2298-866 SU (72.6%; +2.6% ROI) and 1687-1270 RL (57.1%; +3.2% ROI), including 1166-392 SU (74.8%; +4.8% ROI) and 921-638 RL (59.1%; +3.5% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +2.4 runs per game.
Since 2003, large MLB home favorites that have the same (or better) record than their opponent over the last ten games are 2299-905 SU (71.8%; +1.9% ROI) and 1474-1213 RL (+2.5% ROI) from game 40 out, including 728-245 SU (74.8%; +4.6% ROI) and 556-417 RL (57.1%; +3.1% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +2.18 runs per game. Since 2003, MLB road underdogs of +156 or greater coming off a road game in which they scored less than nine runs are 453-985 SU (31.5%; -9.8% ROI) and 573-621 RL (-8.4% ROI) with starting pitchers with an ERA of 3.81 or worse that are coming off back-to-back losses in their previous two outings, losing by an average of -1.69 runs per game.
The above teams are an even worse 88-254 SU (25.7%; -24.4% ROI) and 155-188 RL (45.2%; -10.6% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.97 runs per game.
Philadelphia Phillies (-115) at Toronto Blue Jays
Report: Since 2006, non-divisional road favorites of -170 or less with one day of rest entering off a home game are 234-154 SU (60.3%; +6.7% ROI) and 182-188 SU (+9% ROI), including 89-38 SU (70.1%; +20.9% ROI) and 75-52 RL (59.1%; +29.5% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +1.98 runs per game. Since 2007, non-divisional road favorites with one day of rest are 471-281 SU (62.6%; +8% ROI) and 376-371 RL (+8.6% ROI) in the first game of a series, including 191-85 SU (69.2%; +15.9% ROI) and 160-116 RL (58%; +20.9% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average margin of +2.01 runs per game.
Finally, since 2005, non-divisional home underdogs versus rested teams coming off a loss are 61-125 SU (32.8%; -26.5% ROI) and 79-89 RL (-16.6% ROI) after the All-Star break, losing by an average of -1.74 runs per game.
Bonus MLB Betting Trends for Tuesday, August 15
- Since 2005, large favorites in the first game of a series are 1296-543 (70.5%; +1.4% ROI) SU and 920-742 RL (55.4%; +3.3% ROI), winning by an average of +1.97 runs per game
- Since 2004, MLB home underdogs of +140 or greater coming off a walk-off win are 90-191 SU (32%; -15% ROI) and 101-135 RL (42.8%; -16.1% ROI), losing by an average of -2.4 runs per game
- Since 2006, rested non-divisional road favorites coming off a win versus starting pitchers off an outing in which they allowed three or more runs are 147-92 SU (61.5%; +5% ROI) and 113-105 RL (+10.3% ROI), including 73-17 SU (81.1%; +34.1% ROI) and 60-30 RL (66.7%; +35.5% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average of +3.0 runs per game
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