Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Thursday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox (-250)
Report: Since 2006, MLB favorites of -201 or greater in games with totals of eight or more runs are 2289-864 SU (72.6%; +2.5% ROI) and 1679-1267 RL (57%; +3.1% ROI), including 1157-390 SU (74.8%; +4.7% ROI) and 913-635 RL (59%; +3.3% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +2.39 runs per game. Since 2006, large MLB home favorites coming off a win in which there was no score after the first inning are 264-112 SU (70.2%; +1% ROI) and 205-158 RL (56.5%; +6.1% ROI) with left-handed starters, winning by an average margin of +2.09 runs per game. These teams are 77-27 SU (74%; +4.6% ROI) and 61-43 RL (58.7%; +8.2% ROI) since 2021, winning by an average of +2.41 runs per game.
Since 2003, MLB road underdogs of +156 or greater coming off a road game in which they scored less than nine runs are 452-982 SU (31.5%; -9.7% ROI) and 572-618 RL (-8.2% ROI) with starting pitchers with an ERA of 3.81 or worse that are coming off back-to-back losses in their previous two outings, losing by an average of -1.68 runs per game. These teams are an even worse 87-251 SU (25.7%; -24.3% ROI) and 154-185 RL (45.4%; -10.1% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.96 runs per game.
Finally, the Royals are 28-121 SU (18.8%; -45.4% ROI) and 56-94 RL (37.3%; -25.6% ROI) as large underdogs coming off a game as underdogs in which they had four-plus hits, including at least one home run, losing by an average of -2.36 runs per game.
St. Louis Cardinals at Tampa Bay Rays (-180)
Report: Since 2006, MLB road underdogs of +130 or greater are 2656-4723 SU (36%; -4.3% ROI) and 3769-3191 RL (-2.6% ROI) versus .551 or greater opposition, losing by an average margin of -1.15 runs per game. The Rays are 166-68 SU (70.9%; +7.6% ROI) and 116-118 RL (+1% ROI) since 2015 as home favorites of -151 or greater since 2015, winning by an average of +1.65 runs per game. The Rays are 145-78 SU (65%; +1.8% ROI) since 2004 as favorites of -143 or greater with starting pitchers coming off a road win in their previous outing, winning by an average of +1.42 runs per game.
Bonus MLB Betting Trends for Thursday, August 10
- Since 2006, MLB favorites of -201 or greater in games with totals of eight or more runs are 2289-864 SU (72.6%; +2.5% ROI) and 1679-1267 RL (57%; +3.1% ROI), including 1157-390 SU (74.8%; +4.7% ROI) and 913-635 RL (59%; +3.3% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +2.39 runs per game
- Since 2004, MLB underdogs in the last game of a series are 181-398 SU (31.3% ROI; -11% ROI) and 224-237 RL (-7.4% ROI) versus starting pitchers with an ERA of 4.01 or worse, including 30-108 SU (21.7%; -37.5% ROI) and 56-82 RL (40.6%; -20.7% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -2.32 runs per game
- Since 2003, divisional home favorites of -131 or greater coming off back-to-back wins are 696-402 SU (63.4%; +1% ROI) and 431-474 RL (+3.4% ROI) in games 45 to 120 of the regular season, winning by an average of +1.19 runs per game
- Since 2006, large road favorites are 659-278 SU (70.3%; +2% ROI) and 523-367 RL (58.8%; +1.9% ROI), winning by an average margin of +2.27 runs per game. These teams are an even better 460-168 SU (73.2%; +4.3% ROI) and 373-221 RL (62.8%; +7% ROI) if they are .501 or greater on the season, winning by an average of +2.58 runs per game.
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