Oskeim Sports’ Betting Market Report – 7/26

Jul 26, 2023

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Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report!  Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Wednesday’s games.  Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!

Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays (-170)

Report: Since 2003, MLB road underdogs of +135 or greater in the last game of a series are 362-716 SU (33.6%; -10% ROI) and 456-436 RL (-7.6% ROI) with starting pitchers coming off back-to-back losses in their previous two outings, including 54-142 SU (27.6%; -26.3% ROI) and 88-108 RL (-17.2% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.7 runs per game. Since 2003, MLB road underdogs of +156 or greater coming off a road game in which they scored less than nine runs are 450-979 SU (31.5%; -9.7% ROI) and 569-616 RL (-8.3% ROI) with starting pitchers with an ERA of 3.81 or worse that are coming off back-to-back losses in their previous two outings, losing by an average of -1.68 runs per game. These teams are an even worse 85-248 SU (25.5%; -24.8% ROI) and 151-183 RL (45.2%; -10.5% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.96 runs per game.

The Rays are 165-66 SU (71.4%; +8.2% ROI) and 115-116 RL (+1% ROI) as home favorites of -151 or greater since 2015, winning by an average of +1.7 runs per game. Finally, Miami falls into a negative 2648-4702 (36%; -4.2% ROI) system of mine that has cost bettors over -$22,300 against the run line since 2006.

Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres (-210)

Report: Since 2006, MLB favorites of -201 or greater in games with totals of eight or more runs are 2272-854 SU (72.7%; +2.6% ROI) and 1666-1253 RL (57.1%; +3.3% ROI), including 1140-380 SU (75%; +4.9% ROI) and 900-621 RL (59.2%; +3.7% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +2.4 runs per game. Since 2003, large MLB home favorites that have the same (or better) record than their opponent over the last ten games are 2280-900 SU (71.7%; +1.8% ROI) and 1457-1206 RL (+2.3% ROI) from game 40 out, including 709-240 SU (74.7%; +4.4% ROI) and 539-410 RL (56.8%; +2.5% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +2.18 runs per game.

Since 2003, MLB road underdogs of +135 or greater in the last game of a series are 362-716 SU (33.6%; -10% ROI) and 456-436 RL (-7.6% ROI) with starting pitchers coming off back-to-back losses in their previous two outings, including 54-142 SU (27.6%; -26.3% ROI) and 88-108 RL (-17.2% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.7 runs per game.

Bonus MLB Betting Trends for Wednesday, July 26

  • Since 2006, .499 or worse divisional road underdogs are 950-1373 SU (40.9%; -4.8% ROI) and 1277-890 RL (-3.6% ROI) versus teams with a losing record, including 192-313 SU (38%; -11% ROI) and 286-219 RL (-5.5% ROI) since 2019
  • Since 2003, .490 or worse road underdogs of +142 or greater coming off two or more consecutive losses are 1171-2372 SU (33.1%; -8.5% ROI) and 1540-1397 RL (-2.8% ROI), including 282-604 SU (31.8%; -8.4% ROI) and 444-442 RL (-3.4% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.63 runs per game.
  • The Houston Astros are 52-18 SU (74.3% ROI) and 37-33 RL (+1% ROI) since September 20, 2018, in divisional home games, winning by an average of +2.19 runs per game
  • The Houston Astros are 107-65 SU (62.2%; +5.4% ROI) and 95-76 RL (55.6%; +6% ROI) since 2013 when going for a series sweep, including 22-4 SU (84.6%; +34.2% ROI) and 18-8 RL (69.2%; +39.7% ROI) since 2022, winning by an average of +1.96 runs per game
  • Miami starter Sandy Alcantara is 0-12 SU and 2-10 RL (16.7%; -68.9% ROI) since 2021 as an underdog of +130 or greater coming off an outing in which he allowed less than five earned runs, losing by an average margin of -4.25 runs per game
  • The Seattle Mariners are 0-9 SU and 2-7 RL (22.2%; -67.6% ROI) since October 15, 2022, as underdogs of less than +175 in the last game of a series, losing by an average of -3.89 runs per game

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