Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Friday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (-150)
Report: Since 2003, MLB home favorites with starting pitchers whose WHIP is 1.30 or better are 1135-590 SU (65.8%; +4.4% ROI) versus starting pitchers whose ERA is 3.50 or better during the months of May through August, winning by an average of +1.11 runs per game. Since 2004, home favorites of -154 or greater with starting pitchers coming off a loss in which they allowed eight or more runs are 540-285 SU (65.5%; +1.1% ROI) and 405-418 RL (+3% ROI), winning by an average of +1.6 runs per game. The Rays are 163-65 SU (71.5%; +8.3% ROI) and 113-115 RL (+1% ROI) as home favorites of -151 or greater since 2015, winning by an average of +1.7 runs per game.
The Orioles are 42-116 SU (26.6%; -32.7% ROI) and 66-92 RL (41.8%; -16.7% ROI) since April 14, 2018, versus starting pitchers with a strikeout-to-walk ratio greater than 2.0, losing by an average of -1.73 runs per game. Finally, Baltimore falls into negative 2645-4700 (36%; -4.3% ROI) and 2304-4116 (35.9%; -4.5% ROI) systems of mine that have cost bettors over -$34,500 against the run line since 2002.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Angels (-190)
Report: Since 2005, MLB favorites of -191 or greater in the first game of a series are 1282-532 SU (70.7%; +1.7% ROI) and 911-726 RL (55.7%; +4% ROI), including 580-217 SU (72.8%; +3.8% ROI) and 465-330 RL (58.5%; +5.7% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average of +2.22 runs per game. Since 2011, teams coming off three consecutive wins are 680-550 SU (+4.8% ROI) and 651-574 RL (+4.8% ROI) in the first game of a series, including 153-109 SU (58.4%; +10% ROI) and 144-118 RL (55%; +7.5% ROI) since 2021.
Finally, Los Angeles applies to a very good 2274-897 SU (71.7%; +1.8% ROI) and 1452-1202 RL (54.7%; +2.3% ROI) system that dates to 2004 and invests on certain large favorites of -200 or greater. This situation has won by an average margin of +1.98 runs per game in that span.
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins (-155)
Report: Since 2009, divisional home favorites of -165 or greater coming off a loss are 914-434 SU (67.8%; +1.8% ROI) and 679-668 RL (+3.1% ROI), including 222-87 SU (71.8%; +6.1% ROI) and 172-137 RL (55.7%; +9.5% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average margin of +2.01 runs per game. Since 2003, MLB home favorites of -155 or greater in the first game of a series are 403-179 SU (69.2%; +6.4% ROI) and 248-244 RL (+6.1% ROI) coming off a game in which they scored one run or less, including 119-42 SU (73.9%; +11.2% ROI) and 89-70 RL (56%; +11.3% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average of +2.1 runs per game.
Finally, MLB favorites off a shutout loss are 714-473 SU (60.2%; +2.3% ROI) since 2014, including 311-183 SU (63%; +5.2% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +1.12 runs per game.
Bonus MLB Betting Trends for Friday, July 21
- The Baltimore Orioles are 128-185 SU (40.9%; –2.6% ROI) since September 25, 2020, following a game as underdogs, losing by an average margin of -1.0 runs per game
- The New York Yankee are 173-98 SU (63.8%; +2.2% ROI) at home in the opening game of a non-divisional series since 2005, winning by an average of +1.2 runs per game
- The Oakland Athletics are 67-149 SU (31%; -9.2% ROI) since 2014 as underdogs of more than +160, losing by an average of -1.9 runs per game
- The Tampa Bay Rays are 140-90 SU (60.9%; +12.2% ROI) since 2020 versus divisional opponents, winning by an average of +1.0 runs per game
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