Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Thursday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (-180)
Report: Since 2003, MLB home favorites of -160 or greater in the first game of a series are 362-146 SU (71.3%; +8.2% ROI) and 228-211 RL (+8% ROI) following a game in which they scored one run or less, including 112-37 SU (75.2%; +12.2% ROI) and 85-62 RL (57.8%; +13.7% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average of +2.21 runs per game. Since 2009, divisional home favorites of -165 or more coming off a loss are 914-433 SU (67.9%; +1.9% ROI) and 679-667 RL (+3.2% ROI), including 222-86 SU (72.1%; +6.4% ROI) and 172-136 RL (55.8%; +9.8% ROI) since 2020, winning by an average of +2.02 runs per game.
The Rays are 163-64 SU (71.8%; +8.7% ROI) and 113-114 RL (+1% ROI) as home favorites of -151 or greater since 2015, winning by an average of +1.71 runs per game. Finally, Baltimore falls into negative 2644-4699 (36%; -4.3% ROI) and 2303-4115 (35.9%; -4.5% ROI) systems of mine that have cost bettors over -$34,500 against the run line since 2002.
Houston Astros (-192) at Oakland Athletics
Report: Since 2013, divisional road favorites of -160 or greater are 456-198 SU (69.7%; +6.3% ROI) and 363-290 RL (55.6%; +2.6% ROI) versus teams with revenge, winning by an average margin of +1.97 runs per game. Since 2007, divisional home underdogs of +150 or greater are just 357-744 SU (32.4%; -11.5% ROI) and 496-601 RL (-8.1% ROI), losing by an average of -1.93 runs per game. Since 2012, teams coming off a game as underdogs in which they led by 1 run after the 7th inning are 644-849 SU (43.1%; -6.9% ROI) and 753-737 RL (-5.4% ROI) if no runs were scored in the final two innings.
Finally, since 2015, MLB favorites of -130 or greater in the first game of a series are 751-442 SU (63%; +1% ROI) and 565-625 RL (+1% ROI) following a win in which they scored 3 to 6 runs, winning by an average of +1.25 runs per game.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves (-186)
Report: Since 2003, MLB home favorites with starting pitchers whose WHIP is 1.30 or better are 1134-590 SU (65.8%; +4.4% ROI) and 702-871 RL (+1% ROI) versus starting pitchers whose ERA is 3.50 or better in the months of May through August. Since 2003, MLB home favorites greater than -160 coming off back-to-back losses are 293-140 SU (67.7%; +2.4% ROI) and 180-175 RL (+4.6% ROI) in game 3 of a series, including 84-34 SU (71.2%; +6.7% ROI) and 63-54 RL (+7.2% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average of +1.85 runs per game. Atlanta applies to avery good 2273-897 SU (71.7%; +1.8% ROI) and 1451-1202 RL (54.7%; +2.2% ROI) system that dates to 2004 and invests on certain large favorites of -200 or greater. This situation has won by an average margin of +1.98 runs per game in that span.
Atlanta starter Spencer Strider is 21-4 SU (84%; +22.1% ROI) and 15-10 RL (60%; +14% ROI) during the regular season since August 15, 2022, winning by an average of +2.56 runs per game. Finally, Arizona falls into negative 2644-4699 (36%; -4.3% ROI) and 2303-4115 (35.9%; -4.5% ROI) systems of mine that have cost bettors over -$34,500 against the run line since 2002.
Bonus Betting Trends for Thursday, July 20
- Since 2006, MLB favorites of -201 or greater in games with totals of eight or more runs are 2266-848 SU (72.8%; +2.8% ROI) and 1662-1245 RL (57.2%; +3.5% ROI), including 1134-374 SU (75.2%; +5.2% ROI) and 896-613 RL (59.4%; +4% ROI) since 2018, winning by an average margin of +2.42 runs per game.
- Since 2007, home underdogs coming off a loss are 1986-2823 SU (41.3%; -6.3% ROI) and 2555-2234 RL (-5% ROI) in games that start after 4 p.m. eastern time, including 507-820 SU (38.2%; -9.8% ROI) and 661-665 RL (-9.2% ROI) since 2019, losing by an average of -1.31 runs per game.
- Since 2009, home underdogs coming off a game that went under the total in which both teams failed to score in the first inning are 1211-1741 SU (41%; -6.9% ROI) and 1554-1390 RL (-6.7% ROI), losing by an average of -1.11 runs per game.
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