Welcome to Oskeim Sports’ Daily Betting Market Report! Oskeim’s award-winning sports handicappers provide bettors with valuable information on Friday’s games. Be sure to check out Oskeim’s premium sports picks for sale at the online store!
Philadelphia Phillies (-180) at Washington Nationals
Report: Since 2013, MLB divisional road favorites of -160 or greater are 449-193 SU (69.9%; +6.6% ROI) and 357-284 RL (55.7%; +2.9% ROI) versus teams with revenge, winning by an average margin of +1.98 runs per game. Since 2016, divisional road favorites coming off a road game are 668-449 SU (59.8%; +2.8% ROI), including 379-249 SU (60.4%; +2.2 ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +1.03 runs per game. Since 2002, MLB road favorites of -130 or greater coming off a game in which they used less than five pitchers are 1096-662 SU (62.3%; +2.4% ROI) and 863-893 RL (+1% ROI), winning by an average margin of +1.46 runs per game in that span.
Philadelphia applies to a very good 2048-994 SU (67.3%; +5% ROI) and 1380-1473 RL (+2.5% ROI) system of mine that invests on certain favorites priced between -155 and -250 versus starting pitchers who have an ERA of 4.50 or better. These teams have won by an average of +1.47 runs per game since 2002. Finally, Philadelphia is 36-11 SU (76.6%; +25.1% ROI) and 26-20 RL (56.5%; +15.6% ROI) versus the Nationals since 2020, including 11-1 SU and 10-2 RL since July 7, 2022.
Oakland Athletics at Miami Marlins (-195)
Report: Since 2005, large MLB favorites are 1211-491 SU (71.2%; +2.1% ROI) and 856-669 RL (56.1%; +4.7% ROI) in the first game of a series, winning by an average of +2.01 runs per game. These teams are 434-171 SU (71.7%; +2.9% ROI) and 330-269 RL (55.1%; +3.4% ROI) before the All-Star game, winning by an average margin of +2.11 runs per game. Miami falls into a very good 2232-873 SU (71.9%; +2.1% ROI) and 1416-1172 RL (+2.3% ROI) system of mine that dates to 2003 and invests on certain large home favorites from Game 40 out. This situation is 661-213 SU (75.6%; +5.6% ROI) and 498-376 RL (57%; +2.6% ROI) since 2019, winning by an average margin of +2.22 runs per game.
Finally, the Athletics are just 58-134 SU (30.2%; -12% ROI) and 88-104 RL (-9.3% ROI) as large underdogs since 2014, losing by an average of -2.04 runs per game. This situation is 2-20 SU (9.1%) since April 25, 2023.
Milwaukee Brewers (-180) at Cincinnati Reds
Report: Since 2007, MLB divisional home underdogs of +150 or greater are 353-739 SU (32.3%; -11.8% ROI) and 491-597 RL (-8.3% ROI), losing by an average margin of -1.93 runs per game. Since 2002, MLB road favorites of -130 or greater coming off a game in which they used less than five pitchers are 1096-662 SU (62.3%; +2.4% ROI) and 863-893 RL (+1% ROI), winning by an average margin of +1.46 runs per game in that span. Since 2016, divisional road favorites coming off a road game are 668-449 SU (59.8%; +2.8% ROI), including 379-249 SU (60.4%; +2.2 ROI) since 2019, winning by an average of +1.03 runs per game.
Finally, MLB road favorites coming off a game that went under the total in which they had three or more walks are 860-614 SU (58.3%; +1% ROI) and 727-747 RL (+1% ROI), winning by an average of +1.16 runs per game.
Bonus MLB Betting Trends for Friday, June 2
- San Francisco starter Logan Webb is 25-6 SU (80.6%; +27.3% ROI) and 17-14 RL (+18.7% ROI) since September 12, 2019, as a home favorite, winning by an average of +2.13 runs per game
- Houston starter Justin Verlander is 12-0 to the Under since June 15, 2017, when the total is at least seven runs and he had no more than five strikeouts in his last start
- New York starter Luis Severino is 10-0 to the Under since 2019 in games with a total of at least seven runs provided he is not a -160 or greater favorite, covering the total by an average margin of 3.5 runs per game in that span
- The Washington Nationals are 18-46 (28.1%; -38% ROI) in the opening game of a divisional series since 2020, losing by an average margin of -1.4 runs per game.
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