My math model actually favors UCLA by one point, and the Bruins apply to an excellent 37-3-1 ATS home bounce-back situation of mine that is predicated upon their upset loss at Utah last week. Conversely, Oregon falls into a very negative 21-74-3 ATS road letdown situation that is based upon its 31-24 upset loss at home to Arizona last Saturday. When both of these angles intersect one another, the situation is a perfect 6-0 ATS so I have no problem grabbing the points with the better team.
UCLA is averaging 36.0 points per game this season at 4.0 yards per rush play, 9.5 yards per pass play and 6.3 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow just 3.6 yards per rush attempt, 6.6 yards per pass attempt and 5.0 yards per play. The Bruins’ aerial attack is nearly unstoppable at home where they are averaging 332 passing yards at 10.1 yards per pass play with a 74.2% completion rate. Overall, UCLA has been 0.4 yards per rush attempt, 2.9 yards per pass attempt and 1.3 yards per play better than average offensively in 2014, which is potent enough to move the chains against a good Oregon stop unit.
Oregon is 0.6 yards per rush play, 0.5 yards per pass play and 0.5 yards per play better than average defensively this season, but that is not nearly good enough to slow down the Bruins’ attack:
UCLA Offense vs. Oregon Defense:
- -0.2 yards per rush play disadvantage
- +2.4 yards per pass play advantage
- +0.8 yards per play advantage overall
As you can see from the above statistics from the line of scrimmage, the Bruins should have success throwing the ball downfield against a slightly above average Oregon secondary. Meanwhile, UCLA’s stop unit is allowing 25.8 points per game at 4.0 yards per rush play, 6.5 yards per pass play and 5.3 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 4.5 yards per rush attempt, 7.1 yards per pass attempt and 5.6 yards per play against a mediocre stop unit. Overall, the Bruins have been 0.5 yards per rush play, 0.6 yards per pass play and 0.3 yards per play better than average defensively this season, which is still not good enough to slow down Oregon’s offense:
Oregon Offense vs. UCLA Defense:
- +0.2 yards per rush play advantage
- +2.0 yards per pass play advantage
- +1.0 yards per play advantage overall
For those of you who are interested in how I arrived at the above-referenced figures, I simply incorporated Oregon’s offensive numbers to date: 0.7 yards per rush play, 2.6 yards per pass play and 1.3 yards per play better than average in 2014. From a technical standpoint, UCLA is a profitable 27-13 ATS as a home underdog, 26-13 ATS following a home loss and 8-4 ATS in this series.
It also appears as if Oregon remains overrated by the betting market as the Ducks are 2-8 ATS in their last ten games overall, including 0-6 ATS in their last six Pac-12 games. With UCLA standing at 14-5 ATS in its last nineteen home games versus teams with a winning record, grab the points with the Bruins and invest with confidence.