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Orange Bowl Betting Preview: Georgia Tech vs. Mississippi State

orange bowlThe Yellow Jackets arrive in the Orange Bowl with an explosive attack that is averaging 37.0 points per game on 469 total yards at 6.6 yards per play and 12.7 yards per point against teams that would combine to allow just 5.5 yards per play to a mediocre offensive squad.  The Yellow Jackets are 5-2 SU and ATS on the road this season where they are averaging 40.7 points per game on 491 total yards at 6.8 yards per play and 12.0 yards per point.

Overall, Georgia Tech is 1.7 yards per rush play, 2.0 yards per pass play and 1.1 yards per play better than average offensively, which is good enough to score over 30 points against the Bulldogs.  Mississippi State possesses a pedestrian stop unit that is allowing 5.5 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yards per play against a mediocre defensive squad.  The bigger concern for Mississippi State is its defensive performance on the road where the Bulldogs have yielded 429 total yards at 6.0 yards per play.

Based on this year’s statistical data, Georgia Tech owns a 1.0 yards per rush play, 1.7 yards per pass play and 0.9 yards per play advantage offensively from the line of scrimmage.  However, Mississippi State should also have success moving the ball as the Bulldogs are averaging 37.2 points per game on 506 total yards at 6.6 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yards per play to a mediocre offensive squad.  While Mississippi State is 0.8 yards per play better than average defensively, the Yellow Jackets are 0.4 yards per play worse than average defensively (6.2 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yards per play)

However, Georgia Tech’s defense has improved over the last three weeks, limiting opponents to 22.3 points on 355 total yards at 5.8 yards per play and 15.9 yards per point.  More importantly, Mississippi State’s offensive efficiency has declined over that same period of time, averaging just 5.5 yards per play and 15.6 yards per point.  Despite Georgia Tech’s progression on the defensive side of the ball and Mississippi State’s regression offensively, the Bulldogs should be able to move the chains in the Orange Bowl.

From a technical standpoint, Georgia Tech is a perfect 5-0 ATS as an underdog this season, pulling upsets in four of those five games.  The Yellow Jackets are also a team that feeds off momentum as evidenced by the fact that they are a perfect 6-0 ATS after winning six of their last seven games.  Let’s also note that Georgia Tech is a profitable 7-1 ATS versus teams with a winning record and 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall.  Take Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl and invest with confidence.