Free NFL Best Bet for Sunday, October 23: San Diego at Atlanta

Oct 22, 2016

NFL sports picks, NFL best bet, NFL betting preview

San Diego is a profitable 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games, 8-2 ATS in its last ten games overall and 4-0 ATS in its last four games versus .501 or greater opposition.  The Chargers are also 7-0 ATS following a division game and 6-0 ATS as road underdogs of 3.5 to 7 points over the last two seasons, while also posting a money-making 24-11 ATS mark in dome games since 1992.  

In contrast, Atlanta is a money-burning 2-15 ATS at home after covering the point spread in three or more consecutive games and 1-9 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Equally concerning is the fact that the Falcons are 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS in games after playing the Seahawks, while NFL teams are just 11-24-1 ATS as home favorites after facing Seattle.

Since 2010, NFL teams with less than eight days of rest following a clash with the Seahawks are just 30-55-4 ATS.  Even more remarkable is the fact that San Diego is a perfect 16-0 ATS on the road versus teams with more wins on the season.

Meanwhile, the Falcons have not covered the Vegas number as a favorite since October 11, 2015, a nine-game span (0-9 ATS)!  This game will likely feature plenty of offensive fireworks as Matt Ryan (9.88) and Philip Rivers (8.19) rank Nos. 1 and 2 in yards per attempt.

The fact that Bill Vinovich’s officiating crew has been assigned this game further enhances the likelihood of a high-scoring affair. Historically, Vinovich’s crews have been low in penalty frequency counts.

San Diego will move the ball with ease against an Atlanta defense that has yielded 24 or more points in every game except one this season (vs. Denver when Paxton Lynch was forced into duty).  The Chargers’ attack ranks second in yards per point and lands in the top 10 in terms of overall efficiency.

Atlanta’s stop unit (or lack thereof) is ranked 23rd in pass pressure efficiency and 27th in red zone defense so Rivers is poised to have a career-game on Sunday.

Take the San Diego Chargers plus the points as Oskeim Sports’ Free NFL Pick for Sunday, October 23, 2016!