NFL Playoffs Championship Round Betting Preview & Free Sports Pick

Jan 20, 2017

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In the twelve NFL games with a total of 57.5 points or higher, the OVER is 10-2 (83.3%).  Interestingly, this game has the highest total of any NFL game since Week 9 of the 2000 regular season between St. Louis and San Francisco.

From a historical standpoint, the OVER has been a profitable investment in NFL games involving extremely high totals like the one we have in the NFC Championship game.

The OVER is 14-2-1 in the Falcons’ seventeen games this season, while the OVER is 12-6 in the Packers’ last eighteen games (6-0 L/6).  In the last fourteen years, the OVER is a 62.1% winning proposition (18-11-1) in Conference Championship games.

Let’s also note that the OVER is 11-0 in Atlanta’s last eleven games played on artificial turf and 11-1 in its last twelve conference affairs, while the OVER is 17-4-1 in Green Bay’s last 21 games versus NFC South opponents.

In his past nine starts, Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers has thrown 24 touchdown passes and one interception.  Similarly, Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan has thrown 22 touchdown passes and three interceptions.

Rodgers has also thrown ten touchdowns without an interception in four starts at the Georgia Dome.  The Packers have averaged 34.8 points per game since Week 14, while the Falcons have averaged 38.0 points per game over the same span (5-0 OVER L/5).

Since Week 12, Ryan is averaging 9.04 yards per pass attempt with a 72.4% completion rate.  Over the same time period, Rodgers is averaging 8.42 yards per pass attempt with a 68.9% completion rate.  Ryan has completed 80% of his pass attempts on third down, while Rodgers has completed 70.6% of his passes on that critical down (ranked 1st and 2nd, respectively, in the NFL).

As a team, the Falcons have converted 53.6% of third downs on passing plays; the Packers have converted an even better 54.4%.  Ryan was one of just three quarterbacks to complete half of his attempts thrown 20 or more yards downfield this season (30-of-60).  Andrew Luck (50.8%) and Russell Wilson (50.7%) were the other two signal-callers to excel on throws downfield.

I also like the fact that Atlanta’s offense is averaging 7.58 yards per play on first down, which leads the league by a wide margin.  Meanwhile, Rodgers has thrown 28 touchdowns and just five interceptions while under pressure since the start of the 2014 season.  The NFL average over that span is 3.2 touchdowns per season to 3.2 interceptions.

Oskeim Sports’ Free NFL Sports Pick: Green Bay/Atlanta OVER 60 points