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NFL Picks: Dallas Travels to MetLife Stadium to Face Giants

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The home team is a 71.4% ATS winning proposition in this series and the Cowboys are a money-burning 5-11-1 ATS in their last seventeen trips to MetLife Stadium.

New York head coach Ben McAdoo was fired by management last week and replaced by interim head coach Steve Steve Spagnuolo. The first thing Spagnuolo did was reinstate Eli Manning as the team’s starting quarterback, a move that drew immediate praise from the entire locker room.

Spagnuolo made other adjustments as well, including changing the players’ schedules, implementing a dress code and eliminating Friday’s “spa day.”

The removal of McAdoo effectively eliminated the dark cloud that was lingering over the organization and Spagnuolo wasted no time in reuniting the locker room by naming Manning as the starting quarterback.

“I took my gut and visited with the offensive coaches and together with that and my gut, Eli Manning is going to be our quarterback . . .the first thing you focus on and think about is how are we going to find a way to win the football game, and I think you all know how I feel about Eli.”

How inept was McAdoo this season? Consider the fact that the Giants ranked 32nd in first downs, 30th in points scored, 29th in total yards and 29th in time of possession.

With number 10 once again under center, I expect a focused effort from a reinvigorated Giants’ squad that wants to finish the regular season with four consecutive wins.

From a technical standpoint, New York applies to a very good 25-7 ATS system that invests on certain underdogs priced between 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off consecutive games in which they were outgained by 100+ total yards.

Let’s also note that Dallas is just 11-22 ATS as a division road favorite, including 3-13 ATS versus foes off a loss. Manning is 13-2-1 ATS in December when the Giants are coming off back-to-back losses, including 13-0-1 ATS in the last fourteen circumstances.

Dallas is 0-7 ATS since November 23, 2014 on the road on artificial turf (10-23-1 ATS L/34 games on turf overall), whereas the Giants are 7-0 ATS as underdogs off a loss provided they were trailing at halftime in their previous game.

The Cowboys are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven December affairs and 5-15-2 ATS in Week 14 of the regular season, while New York is 6-1 ATS in Week 14.

The Cowboys are actually a below-average team from the line of scrimmage, rating 0.1 yards per play worse than average offensively (5.4 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.5 yards per play) and 0.1 yards per play worse than average defensively (5.7 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yards per play).

Dallas will be without suspended running back Ezekiel Elliott and will likely be missing offensive lineman La’el Collins (back) and cornerback Orlando Scandrick (back).

However, the Cowboys welcome back linebacker Sean Lee, who has missed nearly four full games because of a hamstring strain. Lee’s presence on the field cannot be overlooked.

In five full games without Lee this season, the Cowboys have given up an average of 136 yards on the ground and 23.8 points. In the seven games Lee has played, Dallas has allowed 87.7 yards per game on the ground and 18.3 points.

Regardless of who is on the other side of the ball, this is likely an “all-in” effort from the Giants before their home fans. Finally, my math model only favors Dallas by 0.7 points so we are getting excellent line value on the live home underdog.

Grab the points with the Giants as one of Oskeim Sports’ NFL Picks for Sunday, December 10.

Oskeim Sports’ NFL Picks for Sunday, December 10:

  • New York Giants (+4) over Dallas Cowboys

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